Brzezinsky on Iraq

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: "Kobrin, Steve" <kobrins () wharton upenn edu>
Date: February 2, 2007 10:24:48 AM EST
To: David Farber <dave () farber net>
Subject: Brzezinsky on Iraq


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/03dd3a7a-b230-11db-a79f-0000779e2340.html


In today's FT Brzeznsky argues that:
If the US stays bogged down in Iraq, the final destination on this  
downhill track is likely to be head-on conflict with Iran and with  
the broader world of Islam. A plausible scenario for a military  
collision with Iran involves Iraqi failure to meet US benchmarks;  
followed by US accusations of Iranian responsibility for the failure;  
then by some provocation in Iraq or a terrorist act in the US blamed  
on Iran. This could culminate in “defensive” US military action  
against Iran that plunges a lonely America into a deepening quagmire  
eventually encompassing Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

    Four steps towards calming the chaos in Iraq
By Zbigniew Brzezinsky

Published: February 1 2007 21:16 | Last updated: February 1 2007 21:16

It is time for the White House to come to terms with two central  
realities: the war in Iraq is a historic, strategic and moral  
calamity; and only a strategy that is historically relevant rather  
than reminiscent of colonial tutelage can provide the framework for a  
tolerable resolution of both the war and intensifying regional tensions.

If the US stays bogged down in Iraq, the final destination on this  
downhill track is likely to be head-on conflict with Iran and with  
the broader world of Islam. A plausible scenario for a military  
collision with Iran involves Iraqi failure to meet US benchmarks;  
followed by US accusations of Iranian responsibility for the failure;  
then by some provocation in Iraq or a terrorist act in the US blamed  
on Iran. This could culminate in “defensive” US military action  
against Iran that plunges a lonely America into a deepening quagmire  
eventually encompassing Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

A mythical historical narrative to justify the case for such a  
protracted war is already being articulated. Initially justified by  
false claims about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, the war is  
now being redefined as the “decisive ideological struggle” of our  
time, reminiscent of the earlier collisions with Nazism and Stalinism.

This simplistic and demagogic narrative overlooks the fact that  
Nazism was based on the military power of the most industrially  
advanced European state; and that Stalinism was able to mobilise not  
only the resources of the Soviet Union but also had worldwide appeal  
through its Marxist doctrine. To argue that America is already at war  
in the region with a wider Islamic threat, of which Iran is the  
epicentre, is to promote a self-fulfilling prophecy.

It is obvious by now that the US national interest calls for a  
significant change of direction. There is a consensus in favour of  
change: US public opinion now holds that the war was a mistake; that  
a regional political process should be explored; and that an Israeli- 
Palestinian accommodation is essential to the needed policy  
alteration. It is noteworthy that a number of leading Republicans  
have voiced profound reservations regarding the administration’s  
policy. One need only invoke here the expressed views of the late  
President Gerald Ford, former secretary of state James Baker, former  
national security adviser Brent Scowcroft and several leading  
Republican senators: John Warner, Chuck Hagel and Gordon Smith among  
others.

The quest for a political solution to the growing chaos in Iraq  
should involve four steps.

First, the US should reaffirm unambiguously its determination to  
leave Iraq in a reasonably short period of time. Such a declaration  
is needed to allay fears in the Middle East of a new and enduring  
American imperial hegemony. That perception should be discredited at  
the highest level, perhaps by a joint resolution in the Congress.

Second, the US should announce it is undertaking talks with all Iraqi  
leaders – including those who do not reside in the fortress area in  
Baghdad known as the “Green Zone” – jointly to set and announce  
a deadline for full US military disengagement. In the meantime, the  
US should avoid escalation.<snip>

-------------------------------------------
Archives: http://archives.listbox.com/247/
Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com