more on Retrospective analyses of Y2K

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Joel M Snyder <Joel.Snyder () Opus1 COM>
Date: May 31, 2006 2:35:06 PM EDT
To: doug () dougcarmichael com
Cc: brian.randell () ncl ac uk, dave () farber net
Subject: Re: [IP] Retrospective analyses of Y2K

Doug:

I strongly agree with the 'shifting budget' argument.  I have long  
said that one of the reasons that people saw such a slowdown is that  
there was this enormous bump of people refreshing ALL their PCs and  
servers in 98/99 and then they just didn't need to buy them in  
2000/2001/2002.  So if you looked at the graph up to 99, you  
predicted a lot of "hockey stick up and to the right" spending, which  
was really anomalous.

I'm not sure how much that can be blamed for other ills within the  
economy, but I think your argument is supportable (with other  
evidence, of course).

I have taken the current SarbOx/GLBA and associated a new phrase with  
it; I have been using it in lectures: "It's Y2K all over again."   
This means that people are able to go into their CFO's office, throw  
a Purchase Requisition under his/her nose, and say "this is for  
regulatory compliance" and BOOM out comes the cash.

So the question to research (and fairly quickly) is: is this true?   
And, if so, can your conclusions about Y2K spending be fast-forward  
applied to 2005/2006 spending in IT?  Is there another boom/bust that  
technology companies, especially those in the security space, are  
going to see?

I suspect not entirely, because regulatory compliance is of smaller  
scope than "every single company in the world," but there is some  
parallel.

jms
--
Joel M Snyder, 1404 East Lind Road, Tucson, AZ, 85719
Phone: +1 520 324 0494 (voice)  +1 520 324 0495 (FAX)
jms () Opus1 COM    http://www.opus1.com/jms    Opus One


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