more on Was the 2004 election stolen? Yes.

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Steven Hertzberg <stevenstevensteven () gmail com>
Date: June 4, 2006 1:09:12 AM EDT
To: dave () farber net
Cc: peter () redesignresearch com
Subject: RE: [IP] more on Was the 2004 election stolen? Yes.

What we said was that the exit polls and our audit do not support the  
claim
of fraud. While we are unable to rule out fraud, we can't find  
evidence of
it.

As I mentioned earlier, we did find plenty of error in the system, so  
we're
working with election officials in Ohio to implement improved systems to
mitigate this error prior to 2008.

Finally, I would encourage those activists who are quick to criticize  
our
work, with little specifics, to conduct their own exit poll.  It is much
harder than it looks and not always as accurate as everyone would want.

Steven

-----Original Message-----
From: David Farber [mailto:dave () farber net]
Sent: Saturday, June 03, 2006 8:00 PM
To: ip () v2 listbox com
Subject: [IP] more on Was the 2004 election stolen? Yes.



Begin forwarded message:

From: Peter Jones <peter () redesignresearch com>
Date: June 3, 2006 7:07:43 PM EDT
To: dave () farber net
Subject: RE: [IP] more on Was the 2004 election stolen? Yes.

Dave - As an Ohio resident who also personally observed and recorded the
2004 election vote recount in Greene County, I can attest to the fact  
that
the systematic manipulation of the recount process was managed by phone
calls and directives from SoS Blackwell's office. I was there when  
the calls
came in. I observed that the statutory procedures we fledgling  
observers had
been recently trained in were, in fact, not followed - and when  
challenged,
the Board of Elections officials merely stated "they always did it this
way." The Cuyahoga County BOE was indicted for election law crimes for
conducting their
2004 recount using the same process, because they had prosecutors  
willing to
take on the case. The illegal recount process was systematic and  
controlled
by the Secretary of State, now candidate for Governor.

As far as Manjoo goes, or Steve Hertzberg for that matter, they have  
been
consistently publishing the same position since 2004, and I invite  
them to
reopen the issue themselves. To look at the mountains of evidence  
compiled
by grassroots Ohio activists - collaborations of statisticians and math
professors among them - and national groups such as the one I copy  
below. I
welcome people to read Kathy Dopp's statistical analysis based on Ohio
precinct data which knocks dead Warren Mitofksy's weak and handwaving
response suggesting there was bias in his exit polls which showed Kerry
winning Ohio. See: http:// uscountvotes.org/  Which is now the National
Election Data Archive project, a people's project to collect vote  
actuals
data in all future elections to prevent this kind of catastrophe from
occurring again.

The National Election Data Archive publicly released a paper "2004
Presidential Election - Compendium of Attempts to Dismiss Vote Fraud"
which solidly rebuts, in 6 short pages, the academic arguments which  
claim
to have shown that there is no vote fraud/miscounts in U.S.
elections.

The short compendium of academic attempts to dismiss vote fraud includes
claims made by the Democratic National Committee and pollster Warren
Mitofksy among others:

http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/
IncorrectElectionDataAnalysis-06.pdf

Every argument that Mitofksy, Election Science Institute, the Democratic
National Committee, and others have made which purports that there is no
evidence of vote miscount in U.S. elections is refuted in a page or  
less in
this short compendium by the National Election Data Archive's volunteer
statisticians and mathematicians.

Warren Mitofsky is very well respected within AAPOR due to his past  
work and
leadership.  Consequently Mitofsky's position, that exit poll  
discrepancies
were caused by partisan response bias rather than vote miscounts is  
given
great weight within AAPOR.  However, the National Election Data Archive,
describes recent Mitofsky analyses which were presented by Mitofsky and
Fritz Scheuren at recent ASA.org and AAPOR.org conferences, as  
"sophistry"
rather than mathematically valid analyses.

The National Election Data Archive points out that the National Election
Pool (NEP) and Mitofsky have not yet released any exit poll data or  
analysis
publicly that supports this response bias hypothesis.  Yet all the data
regarding pollster conditions which Mitofsky claims they analyzed  
would not
pose any risk to voter confidentiality to release.

The National Election Data Archive invites everyone to read its concise
paper which solidly rebuts all the arguments made to date which claim to
demonstrate a lack of evidence of vote fraud in U.S.
elections.

(Leaving my contact info out)

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