Stark warning over climate change

[Dave Farber <dave () farber net>]

-------- Original Message --------
Subject:        Stark warning over climate change
Date:   Tue, 31 Jan 2006 21:59:56 +0000
From:   Brian Randell <Brian.Randell () ncl ac uk>
To:     dave () farber net



Dave:

For IP if you wish.

The BBC web-site is carrying an account of a major new report " 
Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change ":

> Stark warning over climate change
> By Richard Black
> Environment Correspondent, BBC News website
>
>
> Icebergs in Greenland. Image: AP
>
> Climate report conclusions
> Rising concentrations of greenhouse gases may have more serious 
> impacts than previously believed, a major scientific report has said.
>
> The report, published by the UK government, says there is only a 
> small chance of greenhouse gas emissions being kept below 
> "dangerous" levels.
>
> It fears the Greenland ice sheet is likely to melt, leading sea 
> levels to rise by 7m (23ft) over 1,000 years.
>
> The poorest countries will be most vulnerable to these effects, it adds.
>
> The report, Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, collates evidence 
> presented by scientists at a conference hosted by the UK 
> Meteorological Office in February 2005.
>
> The conference set two principal objectives: to ask what level of 
> greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is too much, and what the options 
> are for avoiding such a level.
>
> In the report's foreword, UK Prime Minister Tony Blair writes that 
> "it is now plain that the emission of greenhouse gases... is causing 
> global warming at a rate that is unsustainable."
>
> Environment Secretary Margaret Beckett said the report's conclusions 
> would be a shock to many people.
>
> "The thing that is perhaps not so familiar to members of the 
> public... is this notion that we could come to a tipping point where 
> change could be irreversible," she told BBC Radio 4's Today 
> programme.
>
> "We're not talking about it happening over five minutes, of course, 
> maybe over a thousand years, but it's the irreversibility that I 
> think brings it home to people."
>
> Vulnerable ecosystems
>
> The report sets out the effects of various levels of temperature increase.
>
> The European Union (EU) has adopted a target of preventing a rise in 
> global average temperature of more than two degrees Celsius.
>
> But that, according to the report, might be too high, with two 
> degrees perhaps enough to trigger melting of the Greenland ice sheet.
>
> This would have a major impact on sea levels globally, though it 
> would take up to 1,000 years to see the full predicted rise of 7m.
>
> Above two degrees, says the report, the risks increase "very 
> substantially", with "potentially large numbers of extinctions" and 
> "major increases in hunger and water shortage risks... particularly 
> in developing countries".
>
> 'Without delight'
>
> The report asked scientists to calculate which greenhouse gas 
> concentrations in the atmosphere would be enough to cause these 
> "dangerous" temperature increases.
>
> To have a good chance of achieving the EU's two-degree target, 
> levels should be stabilised at 450ppm or below, the report concludes.
>
> But, speaking on Today, the UK government's chief scientific 
> adviser, Sir David King, said that was unlikely to happen.
>
> "We're going to be at 400 ppm in 10 years' time, I predict that 
> without any delight in saying it," he said.
>
> "But no country is going to turn off a power station which is 
> providing much-desired energy for its population to tackle this 
> problem - we have to accept that.
>
> "To aim for 450 (ppm) would, I am afraid, seem unfeasible."

. . .

Full story at:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4660938.stm

Details of the report's findings at:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4661830.stm

The report itself:

http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climatechange/internat/dangerous-cc.htm

Cheers

Brian Randell




--
School of Computing Science, University of Newcastle, Newcastle upon Tyne,
NE1 7RU, UK
EMAIL = Brian.Randell () ncl ac uk   PHONE = +44 191 222 7923
FAX = +44 191 222 8232  URL = http://www.cs.ncl.ac.uk/~brian.randell/


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