more on : The Odds -- Re: more on apple recall ..

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Lauren Weinstein <lauren () vortex com>
Date: August 24, 2006 4:17:00 PM EDT
To: dave () farber net
Cc: lauren () vortex com
Subject: The Odds -- Re: [IP] more on apple recall ..


Dave, not to downplay the seriousness of fires or even slightly
singed laps, but it never hurts to look more closely at the numbers.

According to the media reports, between Dell and Apple we're talking
about around 6 million notebook batteries, and (at least based
on the current U.S. figures I've seen) under 20 total cases of
overheating (and far fewer actual fires).  Of course, there's
always the risk of future events related to these batteries, many
of which have been in use for quite some time.

But still, do the math and it appears that the odds of getting
"burned" by one of these batteries is pretty damn low, *much* lower
than the odds of many other bad things happening (see
http://www.funny2.com/odds.htm ).

This isn't to say that defective products are a good thing, but
trying to keep such risks in perspective is a useful exercise.

--Lauren--
Lauren Weinstein
lauren () vortex com or lauren () pfir org
Tel: +1 (818) 225-2800
http://www.pfir.org/lauren
Co-Founder, PFIR
   - People For Internet Responsibility - http://www.pfir.org
Co-Founder, IOIC
   - International Open Internet Coalition - http://www.ioic.net
Moderator, PRIVACY Forum - http://www.vortex.com
Member, ACM Committee on Computers and Public Policy
Lauren's Blog: http://lauren.vortex.com
DayThink: http://daythink.vortex.com




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