"Preparing for the Next Pandemic" (article featured on ABC's "Nightline" last night)

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Steve Goldstein <steve.goldstein () cox net>
Date: September 30, 2005 11:38:53 AM EDT
To: "David Farber [IP]" <dave () farber net>
Subject: [NoVES Dialogue] "Preparing for the Next Pandemic" (article  
featured on ABC's "Nightline" last night)


Very sobering article.  Far-reaching in its considerations.  --Steve

http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20050701faessay84402-p0/michael-t- 
osterholm/preparing-for-the-next-pandemic.html

Preparing for the Next Pandemic
Michael T. Osterholm
From Foreign Affairs, July/August 2005


Summary:  If an influenza pandemic struck today, borders would close,  
the global economy would shut down, international vaccine supplies  
and health-care systems would be overwhelmed, and panic would reign.  
To limit the fallout, the industrialized world must create a detailed  
response strategy involving the public and private sectors.

  Michael T. Osterholm is Director of the Center for Infectious  
Disease Research and Policy, Associate Director of the Department of  
Homeland Security's National Center for Food Protection and Defense,  
and Professor at the University of Minnesota's School of Public Health.

FEAR ITSELF
Dating back to antiquity, influenza pandemics have posed the greatest  
threat of a worldwide calamity caused by infectious disease. Over the  
past 300 years, ten influenza pandemics have occurred among humans.  
The most recent came in 1957-58 and 1968-69, and although several  
tens of thousands of Americans died in each one, these were  
considered mild compared to others. The 1918-19 pandemic was not.  
According to recent analysis, it killed 50 to 100 million people  
globally. Today, with a population of 6.5 billion, more than three  
times that of 1918, even a "mild" pandemic could kill many millions  
of people.
A number of recent events and factors have significantly heightened  
concern that a specific near-term pandemic may be imminent. It could  
be caused by H5N1, the avian influenza strain currently circulating  
in Asia. At this juncture scientists cannot be certain. Nor can they  
know exactly when a pandemic will hit, or whether it will rival the  
experience of 1918-19 or be more muted like 1957-58 and 1968-69. The  
reality of a coming pandemic, however, cannot be avoided. Only its  
impact can be lessened. Some important preparatory efforts are under  
way, but much more needs to be done by institutions at many levels of  
society.

...[most of the article omitted, but well worth reading -- SG]...

WHAT COURSE TO TAKE?
The world must form a better understanding of the potential for the  
emergence of a pandemic influenza strain. A pandemic is coming. It  
could be caused by H5N1 or by another novel strain. It could happen  
tonight, next year, or even ten years from now.
The signs are alarming: the number of human and animal H5N1  
infections has been increasing; small clusters of cases have been  
documented, suggesting that the virus may have come close to  
sustained human-to-human transmission; and H5N1 continues to evolve  
in the virtual genetic reassortment laboratory provided by the  
unprecedented number of people, pigs, and poultry in Asia. The  
population explosion in China and other Asian countries has created  
an incredible mixing vessel for the virus. Consider this sobering  
information: the most recent influenza pandemic, of 1968-69, emerged  
in China, when its population was 790 million; today it is 1.3  
billion. In 1968, the number of pigs in China was 5.2 million; today  
it is 508 million. The number of poultry in China in 1968 was 12.3  
million; today it is 13 billion. Changes in other Asian countries are  
similar. Given these developments, as well as the exponential growth  
in foreign travel over the past 50 years, an influenza pandemic could  
be more devastating than ever before.
Can disaster be avoided? The answer is a qualified yes. Although a  
coming pandemic cannot be avoided, its impact can be considerably  
lessened. It depends on how the leaders of the world -- from the  
heads of the G-8 to local officials -- decide to respond. They must  
recognize the economic, security, and health threat that the next  
influenza pandemic poses and invest accordingly. Each leader must  
realize that even if a country has enough vaccine to protect its  
citizens, the economic impact of a worldwide pandemic will inflict  
substantial pain on everyone. The resources required to prepare  
adequately will be extensive. But they must be considered in light of  
the cost of failing to invest: a global world economy that remains in  
a shambles for several years.

This is a critical point in history. Time is running out to prepare  
for the next pandemic. We must act now with decisiveness and purpose.  
Someday, after the next pandemic has come and gone, a commission much  
like the 9/11 Commission will be charged with determining how well  
government, business, and public health leaders prepared the world  
for the catastrophe when they had clear warning. What will be the  
verdict?


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