The Hollywood crisis that isn't

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne () warpspeed com>
Date: October 4, 2005 7:23:39 PM EDT
To: Dewayne-Net Technology List <dewayne-net () warpspeed com>
Subject: [Dewayne-Net] The Hollywood crisis that isn't
Reply-To: dewayne () warpspeed com


Original URL: <http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/10/04/ 
hollywood_crisis_no_crisis/>

The Hollywood crisis that isn't

By Andrew Orlowski in San Francisco (andrew.orlowski at  
theregister.co.uk)
Published Tuesday 4th October 2005 20:31 GMT
Analysis Barely a week has gone by without reports of Hollywood's  
great box office slump of 2005. So our thanks go to screenwriter John  
August for pointing out that on closer examination, the 'slump' is as  
elusive as missing Weapons of Mass Destruction.

"Every Monday brought new speculation about just what was causing the  
downturn, and What It Really Meant. Could the problem be the poor  
state of movie theaters, the growth of DVD, the price of gasoline?"  
observes John.

"What makes this self-flagellation so annoying and unwarranted is  
that the 'box office slump' is basically a myth," he points out.

In fact 2005's box office returns mirror 2004's very closely, and box  
office receipts are down just six per cent this year. One more  
blockbuster would have turned the slump into a boom.

"Is there really an industry crisis if just one movie would eliminate  
it?" asks John.

Of course not. But a better question is why do so many people want  
you to engender this panic?

Because it suits them, that's why.

Phony crisis

Listening to our old friend Lawrence Lessig and former MPAA boss Jack  
Valenti debate each other on National Public Radio last week, it  
became clear. The dears sounded like a couple of senior citizens  
grumbling their way a cold day trip to Brighton Beach - but in  
reality the phony crisis suits them both.

Representing the pigopolist lobby, Valenti wants to instil widespread  
panic so he can outlaw new technologies of storage and distribution.  
History tells us that rights holders have always profited from such  
new technologies, and it's a point Lessig has himself made superbly  
in the past.

Representing the technology determinists, Lessig also wanted to tell  
us the sky is falling, because copyright was the real obstacle to  
technical innovation. The favorite narrative of today's techno- 
utopians goes "X is the end of Y as we know it!" (or "Z changes  
everything!") - it's a recurring adolescent fantasy.

History tells us that copyright has always bent to accommodate the  
new technologies, and the social contract always engineers new  
compensation models. Instead, Lessig concluded with a little Hallmark  
Card homily to the power of creativity, citing "14 million blogs" as  
a testament to human ingenuity. No, really.

[snip]

Weblog at: <http://weblog.warpspeed.com>



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