more on CASUALTY OF WAR: THE U.S. ECONOMY

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Barry Ritholtz <ritholtz () optonline net>
Date: July 21, 2005 6:24:11 AM EDT
To: dave () farber net
Subject: Re: [IP] more on CASUALTY OF WAR: THE U.S. ECONOMY


Hey Dave,

My favorite line in the column was this:

> "Two years ago, no one expected the war would take this long," said  
> Steven Kosiak, director of budget studies at the Center for  
> Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. "On a per-troop basis, this  
> war has been far more costly than expected, almost double the  
> estimates.

Um, not true.

In actuality, before the shooting began, several observers made the  
preliminary assessment that the war would last longer and cost more  
than we were being led to believe at the time.

Recall that IP ran an excerpt of my Pre-War Analysis from March 19,  
2003 (Not-So-Hidden Agenda: Strategic and Economic Assessments of  
U.S. led Invasion in the Middle East   http://bigpicture.typepad.com/ 
comments/2003/03/notsohidden_age.html)

At the time, we predicted the War in Iraq would last up to 10 years  
and cost $1 trillion dollars over that decade. Seems that we were a  
lot closer to the the mark than many people expected.


Regards,




Barry L. Ritholtz
Chief Market Strategist
Maxim Group
405 Lexington Avenue,
New York, NY 10174
(212) 895-3614
(800) 724-0761
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The Big Picture: Macro perspectives on the Capital Markets, Economy,  
and Geopolitics
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments


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