Asimov's Laws come to Japan

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

------ Forwarded Message
From: Rod Van Meter <rdv () tera ics keio ac jp>
Reply-To: <rdv () tera ics keio ac jp>
Date: Mon, 10 Jan 2005 19:48:25 +0900
To: David Farber <dave () farber net>
Subject: Asimov's Laws come to Japan

(for IP, if you wish)

I've been meaning to write up a note about humanoid robots in Japan,
and hadn't gotten around to it, but an article in today's Yomiuri
Shinbun (in Japanese; I couldn't find an English version) prompted me.

Japan is facing a serious manpower shortage over the next generation,
with a birth rate of less than 1.3 children per woman (in Tokyo, it's
0.9987!).  Rural areas are already emptying out, as people flow into
the cities.  So, Japan will need lots of labor, for its
labor-intensive farming system and to care for its graying population.
There are only three choices: 1) increase the birth rate, 2) import
labor, or 3) build laborers.  Personally, I'm betting that xenophobia
and ingenuity together win the day, and that humanoid robots will
become common.

The pieces are finally starting to come together: voice recognition,
vision systems (including 3D worldview construction from stereo
cameras), mechanics (including force-feedback), real-time control,
etc.  (batteries/fuel cells still need work).  The biggest missing
piece is still goal-directed autonomous action, including natural
language understanding.  DARPA, with its Grand Challenge, has
recognized this.  Why humanoid?  Long argument involving stairs,
doorknobs, and human expectations and interaction patterns.  I'm
betting that within five years there will be one or two McDonald's in
Tokyo where you can order a burger from a robot that says "Honda" on
its chest.  There will probably be one (more) cycle of over-hyped
expectations and bust, but I think ten years from now the long-term
upswing will be beginning.

Honda's Asimo is the robot that looks like a child in a spacesuit.
It's doing fantastic things; see http://world.honda.com/ASIMO/ (follow
the link to "movies" for the fun stuff).  It can find its way across a
room, avoiding obstacles and people, and take simple directions such
as "come stand over here".  It's still clearly in the Clarke's Law
regime; these are rigged demos.  It's still quite a ways from being
interactive and flexible in its behavior, but I think we'll get there
in the foreseeable future from this technological base.  (You can see
ASIMO at the Museum of Emerging Science and Technology in Tokyo, if
you're here.)

Toyota, likewise, is doing a bunch of work on robots -- see
http://www.toyota.co.jp/en/special/robot/.  Many of these will be on
display the World Expo in Nagoya this year.  The riding robot is
pretty funky, I'm not sure what it's really useful for.

On to the article in the paper today...

The government is convening a study panel to make recommendations on
regulations for robots.  Industrial robots are apparently already
regulated, but bringing an autonomous mechanical device into regular
contact with people and traffic opens up a whole new set of problems.
Shades of Asimov's Three Laws, the biggest issue is human safety.  The
article mentions relaxation of some regulations, but I'm not certain
what/when those are.

The panel is supposed to produce an interim report in the spring, and
make final recommendations a year from now.  The panel will include
people from universities and industry.

The article says that METI has estimated the market for robots at 1.8
trillion yen (~US$18B) in 2010 and 6.2 trillion yen in 2025.  Doesn't
say if that includes industrial, and if it's worldwide or domestic; I
suspect "yes" and "worldwide".

  --Rod



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