more on Debate on Downloading, P2P, and the Music Industry

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

------ Forwarded Message
From: Adam Peake <ajp () glocom ac jp>
Date: Wed, 09 Feb 2005 21:57:50 +0900
To: <dave () farber net>
Cc: <ritholtz () optonline net>
Subject: Re: [IP] Debate on Downloading, P2P, and the Music Industry

Dave,

For what it's worth, an article in yesterday's UK
Guardian suggested that EMI's problems were with
one of its leading artists, Coldplay:

"Yet the story behind EMI's announcement [profit
forecast down by 30m pounds] was all the more
puzzling. There were no signs of a wider malaise,
no indications that internet downloading - the
threat that induces cold sweats in industry
executives - was exacting a price.

The explanation was much more simple, and
traditional: over the weekend, executives had
been told by Coldplay that the top-selling band's
third album would not be ready for release until
after EMI's financial year ended in March. To
compound the problem, the next release from
Gorillaz, the cartoon-inspired act founded by
former Blur star Damon Albarn, will also be later
than expected."

<http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,,1408008,00.html>

Think I perhaps agree with BR though. Ashamed to
admit but I'm a consumer, a sucker for marketing
and hype. All that marketing's now global. Here
in Tokyo I know --for example-- that Desperate
Housewives is a wonderful TV show (really!) If
ABC would let me buy access to it now, I would.
I know that Friends has finished, but some of you
still watch Joey. I know a lot about many of the
movies released over the past few months, and
that they probably won't show near me until after
the cherry blossom.  I also know I can find
copies (not DVD quality, VHS'ish) on the Internet.

There's an Apple Store in Ginza, but Music Store
is not available in Japan yet.  Bricks and mortar
(actually glass and steel...) beats the Internet.
I bet it's not because Apple doesn't want to
bother!  I buy quite a lot of books, I think more
than I did before Amazon.

Thanks,

Adam



> ------ Forwarded Message
> From: Barry Ritholtz <ritholtz () optonline net>
> Date: Tue, 08 Feb 2005 22:32:58 -0500
> To: <dave () farber net>
> Subject: Debate on Downloading, P2P, and the Music Industry
>
> Hi Dave,
>
> I've been having an ongoing debate with a friend
> on P2P, downloading, and the music industry.  He
> is a hedge fund manager, while I am a  market
> strategist. We finally busted out warring word
> processors, and went at it. Both yesterday and
> today, the entire dialogue was published on the
> RealMoney.com site, which is subscription only.  
>
> I thought the IP list might be interested in
> this. With his permission, I reproduced the full
> debate here:
>
>    <http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/02/debate_on_downl.html>http://
bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/02/debate_on_downl.html
>  
>
> A quick excerpt will give you some flavor:
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~
> CW: "The effects of piracy on the economy and
> the world are just getting started. Music
> company EMI told investors today that it would
> miss sales projections for the year by about 9%.
> Trading in England, the stock took a huge hit on
> the news, wiping out billions of dollars of
> value.
>      
> Music content sales such as records, tapes and
> CDs have long trended with the broader
> economies. With global economies steadily
> growing the last couple of years, the music
> business should have been on fire. Alas, that is
> not the case, and the single biggest reason is
> piracy." (snip)
>      
> BR: It's a complex issue, and people tend to grossly oversimplify it.
>      
> CW doesn't address the issue of the near
> infinite extensions of copyright, a
> constitutionally unwarranted legislative act, a
> corruption of the framers' intent, and a large
> corporate giveaway at the public's expense.
>      
> There are many more issues -- why didn't the
> music industry explore digital distribution a
> decade ago? The short answer is that its retail
> distributors vehemently objected to it. So it
> did nothing, despite its clientele clamoring for
> a digital distribution channel. The marketplace
> hates a vacuum, so up popped Napster, Scour,
> Kazaa, Donkey, Bit Torrent and the rest.  (snip)
> ~~~~~~~~~
>
> I think there's some pretty good stuff here, and
> now that I have gone back over it, I suspect
> that the IPers may find its worth the time to
> read it . . .
>
>
> Cheers,
>
>
>
>
> Barry L. Ritholtz  
> Chief Market Strategist  
> Maxim Group  
> 405 Lexington Avenue,  
> New York, NY 10174  
> (212) 895-3614  
> (800) 724-0761  
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> The Big Picture: Macro perspectives on the
> Capital Markets, Economy, and Geopolitics   
> <http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments>http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments
>
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