more on Sobering analysis of WiMax

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

------ Forwarded Message
From: Jeff Porten <jeff () jeffporten com>
Date: Mon, 07 Feb 2005 09:57:46 -0500
To: <dave () farber net>
Subject: Re: [IP] Sobering analysis of WiMax

On Feb 7, 2005, at 9:24 AM, David Farber wrote:

> From: Gerry Faulhaber <gerry-faulhaber () mchsi com>

> From the Economist, a sobering analysis of the prospects for WiMax.  An
> antidote to the hype.

I can't speak to the hype that's been raised by the Wharton crowd (no
offense to Dr. Faulhaber), but from the technical side I don't see much
meat to this analysis.  In my neck of the woods, the enormity of the
effort that has gone into making very limited WiFi technology provide
ubiquitous availability gives some indication of what might happen when
WiMax hits the streets.

Critiquing some points of the article:

1) Yes, WiMax is not going to be available for a while.  The one bit of
news I hadn't heard was in regards to certification; that having been
said, if you'll recall the early days of 802.11a and b, you can expect
to see some providers rolling out early at the risk of not being
compatible later.

2) A technology that can "plug holes in [rural] broadband coverage" is
a VERY big deal in countries with large uncovered areas.  The article
rather condescendingly talks about getting broadband to poorer nations,
and I'm recalling how difficult it is to get decent access in Ohio.

3) "In urban areas WiMax does not make sense" for companies that have
already spent billions laying copper.  Perhaps some competition would
be nice.  As it stands, your ubiquitous Internet options are:

3a) Verizon EV-DO, dealing with a company which will happily shut off
Europe's email.  (Yes, I know these are separate corporate entities;
still, corporate evil is transitive until proven innocent.)

3b) T-Mobile or Boingo Hotspots, tethering yourself to a series of
coffee shops.

3c) much lower speed options from EDGE and GPRS providers.

Does someone see a market in here for a T1 with a big footprint?  I do.
  And this is before anyone has unleashed any ingenuity on the problem.
No one anticipated someone getting a few miles out of a WiFi base
station and a Pringles can.  Or the competitions to get signal
broadcast for 40 miles across the Mojave Desert.

So yes, please, start attaching those WiMax antennas to buildings.
Within a few weeks, folks on the ground will be doing quite nicely
extending those signals with their mesh networks, and gatewaying them
to people still carrying around the older technologies.

Of course, companies may lose billions in the process, which will worry
the Economist.  That's not the realm in which I'm focusing.

Best,
Jeff


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