more on People Believe a 'Fact' That Fits Thei r Views Even if It'sClearly False

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

------ Forwarded Message
From: martin cook <asilabs () kwic com>
Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 21:29:29 -0500
To: <dave () farber net>
Subject: Re: [IP] People Believe a 'Fact' That Fits Thei r Views Even if
It'sClearly False

prof.farber.

I am reminded of the interesting book written by richards heuer while
he was at the cia..  "the psychology of intelligence analysis".

This work seems relevant in todays "tail wagging the dog" era.. It can
be read online at..  http://www.cia.gov/csi/books/19104/

thanks

matin cook


On 5-Feb-05, at 10:12 AM, David Farber wrote:

> _______________ Forward Header _______________
> Subject: Re: [IP] People Believe a 'Fact' That Fits Their Views Even
> if It'sClearly False
> Author: Barry Ritholtz <ritholtz () optonline net>
> Date:  5th February 2005 12:28:01 pm
>
> Hey Dave,
>
>
> The Begley article reminded me of a book that was terribly
> influentialon my own thinking:   "How We Know What Isn't So," by
> Thomas Gilovich.
> (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0029117062/thebigpictu09-20/
> 002-8088463-8433620)
> It is a very readable analysis of many of the same sorts of broad
> analytical errors Begley discusses that us Humans are prone to.
>
>
> Gilovich explores dozens of faulty observation, perception,
> comprehension, and recollection errors, all of which we make on a
> dialy basis. Its  particularly astounding to read how even after a
> subject is informed of the study, and shown how and why they made a
> particular error, a significant majority go out and repeat the error
> again and again.
>
>
> This book as part of broader curricula I am developing for both
> investors and B-school students on Markets and Investor behavior.
> Despite being published in 1991, it is especially relevant for those
> who have confidence in the public's ability to invest their own
> dollars for retirement in Private Social Security accounts.
>
>
> Truly, one of the more eye opening books you will ever read . . .
>
>
> Cheers,
>
>
>
>
> <fontfamily><param>Arial</param><x-tad-bigger>Barry L.
> Ritholtz</x-tad-bigger></fontfamily><fontfamily><param>Times</
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> Market
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> Lexington
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>
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> bigger>New
> York, NY 10174
>
> (212)
> 895-3614</x-tad-bigger></fontfamily><fontfamily><param>Times</
> param><bigger><bigger>
>
> </bigger></bigger></fontfamily><fontfamily><param>Arial</param><x-tad-
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> </bigger></bigger></fontfamily><fontfamily><param>Arial</param><x-tad-
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>
> </bigger></bigger></fontfamily><fontfamily><param>Arial</param><x-tad-
> bigger>The
> Big Picture: Macro perspectives on the Capital Markets, Economy, and
> Geopolitics
>
> </x-tad-bigger><color><param>0000,0000,EEED</param><x-tad-bigger>http:
> //bigpicture.typepad.com/comments</x-tad-bigger></color></
> fontfamily><fontfamily><param>Times</param><bigger><bigger>
> </bigger></bigger></fontfamily>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On Feb 4, 2005, at 10:45 PM, David Farber wrote:
>
>
> <excerpt>
>
> ------ Forwarded Message
>
> From: "John F. McMullen" <<observer () westnet com>
>
> Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 21:01:53 -0500 (EST)
>
> To: johnmac's living room <<johnmacsgroup () yahoogroups com>
>
> Cc: Dave Farber <<farber () cis upenn edu>
>
> Subject: Sharon Begley -- People Believe a 'Fact' That Fits Their
> Views Even
>
> if It's Clearly False
>
>
> > From the Wall Street Journal --
>
> http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB110746526775045356,00.html?
> mod=todays_us_
>
> marketplace
>
>
> SCIENCE JOURNAL
>
> People Believe a 'Fact' That Fits Their Views Even if It's Clearly
> False
>
> By SHARON BEGLEY
>
>
> Funny thing, memory. With the second anniversary next month of
>
> the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, it's only natural that
>
> supporters as well as opponents of the war will be reliving
>
> the many searing moments of those first weeks of battle.
>
>
> The rescue of Pvt. Jessica Lynch. U.S. troops firing at a van
>
> approaching a Baghdad checkpoint and killing seven women and
>
> children. A suicide bomber nearing a Najaf checkpoint and
>
> blowing up U.S. soldiers. The execution of coalition POWs by
>
> Iraqis. The civilian uprising in Basra against Saddam's
>
> Baathist party.
>
>
> If you remember it well, then we have grist for another verse
>
> for Lerner and Loewe ("We met at nine," "We met at eight," "I
>
> was on time," "No, you were late." "Ah yes, I remember it
>
> well!"). The first three events occurred. The second two were
>
> products of the fog of war: After being reported by the media,
>
> both were quickly retracted by coalition authorities as
>
> erroneous.
>
>
> Yet retracting a report isn't the same as erasing it from
>
> people's memories. According to an international study to be
>
> published next month, Americans tend to believe that the last
>
> two events occurred -- even when they recall the retraction or
>
> correction. In contrast, Germans and Australians who recall
>
> the retraction discount the misinformation. It isn't that
>
> Germans and Australians are smarter. Instead, it's further
>
> evidence that what we remember depends on what we believe.
>
>
> "People build mental models," explains Stephan Lewandowsky, a
>
> psychology professor at the University of Western Australia,
>
> Crawley, who led the study that will be published in
>
> Psychological Science. "By the time they receive a retraction,
>
> the original misinformation has already become an integral
>
> part of that mental model, or world view, and disregarding it
>
> would leave the world view a shambles." Therefore, he and his
>
> colleagues conclude in their paper, "People continue to rely
>
> on misinformation even if they demonstrably remember and
>
> understand a subsequent retraction."
>
>
> For the study, the scientists showed more than 860 people in
>
> Australia, Germany and the U.S. a list of events -- some true
>
> (the first three examples above), some reported but retracted
>
> (the second two), some completely invented ("Iraqi troops
>
> poisoned a water supply before withdrawing from Baghdad").
>
> Each person indicated whether or not he or she had heard of
>
> the event and rated its likelihood of being true. People were
>
> pretty good at weeding out the invented reports. Then, for
>
> each report they said they had heard, they noted whether it
>
> had subsequently been retracted.
>
>
> </excerpt>SNIP
>
>
>
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