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SkyFILES: Seven Prophecies
From: David Farber <dave () farber net>
Date: Fri, 16 Dec 2005 21:03:27 -0500
Begin forwarded message: From: Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne () warpspeed com> Date: December 16, 2005 3:18:17 AM EST To: Dewayne-Net Technology List <dewayne-net () warpspeed com> Subject: [Dewayne-Net] SkyFILES: Seven Prophecies Reply-To: dewayne () warpspeed com SkyFILES: Seven Prophecies by Michael Hopkins mhopkins () mediabiz com What can satellite TV and satellite radio expect next year? How about more competition ... and (unfortunately) maybe some burdensome mandates coming from inside the Beltway: *More VOD From Cable - And a lot of that on-demand content will still be free to subscribers. Also, more VOD titles will be local in nature, and take aim at niche audiences. With VOD, the satellite TV guys could find it hard to compete effectively with cable incumbents. *EchoStar's Strategic Moves - In 2005 Charles Ergen and Co. were quiet about DISH Network's prospects and developing business plans. But don't expect the company to sit back and allow the competition to take over, especially with the new cadre of executives at the company. In 2006, EchoStar will debut more high-def (and we don't mean just the VOOM channels). The effort will include a plan for local HD. Also, could DISH take the wraps off of a broadband product? *Satellite Radio Will Still Rock Next Year - Sirius will get a decent subscriber bump from Howard Stern's debut in January, but it won't be huge for the No. 2 satellite radio company. Music is what still matters for DARS. And when it comes to music programming, XM has Sirius beat on several fronts. (The exception is heavy metal, as many XM defectors - and new Sirius devotees - keep reminding the editors.) *Too Early for Big Telco Successes - Video plans for the big telcos will still be under development in 2006. SBC/AT&T will be hindered by issues tied to Microsoft's IPTV technology, unless the telco dumps the software giant and moves in another direction. Verizon has a handful of FiOS TV markets, and appears to be moving in the right direction, albeit a bit carefully (maybe too carefully). *But Watch Out for Small Telcos - Some small and medium-sized telcos are delivering video, along with advanced broadband and voice services. These small telcos also are in rural areas, satellite TV's current stronghold. Watch the second quarter when the National Rural Telecommunications Cooperative (known for its sales of DirecTV and C-Band) rolls out an IPTV video solution for its members. *But That Doesn't Mean Telcos Will Abandon DBS - As Bruce Leichtman of Leichtman Research reminds us, DBS and telcos need each other. Telcos won't reach 100 percent of their territories with fiber, and need DBS for a video solution. And satellite TV needs telco voice and DSL to complete a triple-play that includes small dish TV. *All Eyes on Portals - What could really be troubling for satellite TV and cable is what comes from D.C. regulators next year. Federal Communications Commission Chairman Kevin Martin's push for a la carte and family tiers will gain the most attention, but don't forget multicast. Martin, more or less, is a friend of the broadcasters. And this year broadcasters claimed one multicast victory: The FCC's August decision to require satellite TV to deliver multicast signals from local broadcasters in Alaska and Hawaii beginning in 2007. Are more multicast mandates on the way? Weblog at: <http://weblog.warpspeed.com> ------------------------------------- You are subscribed as lists-ip () insecure org To manage your subscription, go to http://v2.listbox.com/member/?listname=ip Archives at: http://www.interesting-people.org/archives/interesting-people/
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- SkyFILES: Seven Prophecies David Farber (Dec 16)