why the losing party will contest the 2004 election

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: "Ross, Patrick" <pross () warren-news com>
Date: October 21, 2004 10:38:35 AM EDT
To: "'dave () farber net'" <dave () farber net>
Subject: why the losing party will contest the 2004 election

Hi Dave,

Your recent post about www.electoral-vote.com prompted me to send you a 
look
at how the two sides are projecting the 2004 election, and why it almost
guarantees a Florida recount.  For IP if you like.

A pro-Kerry site, www.electoral-vote.com, is using the latest polls to
project Kerry winning the electoral college 271-257 (Minnesota's 10 
aren't
counted on account of a tie, but they don't matter).  It has Kerry 
winning
Florida's 27 votes and Bush winning Wisconsin's 10 votes.  Florida puts
Kerry over the top.

A pro-Bush site, www.electionprojection.com, is using the latest polls 
to
project Bush winning 274-264.  It flips the two states above, giving 
Bush
Florida and Kerry Wisconsin (it gives Kerry Minnesota, but that's not 
enough
with the Florida loss).  Otherwise the projections are the same as 
above.
Florida puts Bush over the top.

Both sites claim they are the scientific one, and are doing the best
analysis of the polls.  Of course, that analysis is subjective, as is 
the
analysis done by the pollsters themselves.  I think whoever loses will
honestly believe they really won, and if the above projections are any
indication, the loser will have lost Florida when they thought they 
should
have won it.  Sound familiar?


Patrick Ross
Associate Managing Editor
Washington Internet Daily
Communications Daily



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