LongBets -- an outlet for both the delighted and the despairing

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Paul Saffo <psaffo () iftf org>
Date: November 6, 2004 8:39:45 PM EST
To: Dave Farber <dave () farber net>
Subject: LongBets -- an outlet for both the delighted and the despairing

In the last few days, many people have been forcefully arguing the 
long-term consequences of the election, optimistic and pessimistic. 
Whether you are delighted or despairing, we at the LongNow Foundation 
have an outlet for your passionate visions of the future at [ 
www.longbets.com ].

LongBets is a venue where people can make accountable predictions or 
bets about future events of interest to society with philanthropic 
money at stake. The Foundation provides the continuity to see even the 
longest bets through to resolution (we already have several 50 years 
out), and ensures that the stake is delivered to the charity specified 
by the winner.  In addition, LongBets provides a forum for discussion 
of the bets and predictions, and what may be learned from them and 
their eventual outcomes. It is our goal to foster long-term thinking 
and long-term accountibility.

The New York times [ 
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/01/technology/01bets.htm ] recently 
wrote up a 2002 bet between actor Ted Danson and Michael Elliot, editor 
of Time Asia. Michael predicted that the US soccer team would win the 
World Cup before the Red Sox won the World Series. Ted was the winner 
and the stake of $2000 will go Ted's target charity, the American 
Oceans Campaign.

Another featured bet [ http://www.longbets.org/129 ] from 2003 which 
just resolved was "As of August 2005 a Democrat is President of the 
US." Stewart Brand made the prediction, and Brian Eno challenged him. 
Because Brian was the winner, the stake of $1000 went to Brian's chosen 
charity, The San Francisco Exploratorium.

Now, is there a consequence of this election that you passionately 
believe? Will peace and democracy will break out in Iraq?  Will the 
Israelis and Palestinians find the peaceful coexistence that has eluded 
them for half a century? Will suicide bombers will appear in the US? 
Will Iraq witness Vietnam-like outcomes? Will Jeb Bush be the next 
President, or perhaps Hilary Clinton?

The rules, posted at www.longbets.org/rules  are simple, and include:
--The minimum period for predictions and bets is 2 years.
-- The subject must be societally or scientifically important.
-- One must provide an argument for one's bet/prediction.
-- The fee to place is prediction is $50, or a stake of $200 for a bet.
-- One must specify a charitable recipient.

So, if you passionately believe in a particular outcome stemming from 
the November 2nd vote, this is your chance to get go on-record and also 
to compel those you disagree with to step up and  publicly state their 
opinions in a manner that guarantees long-term accountability. Winners 
gain bragging rights and the satisfaction of seeing the stake to to a 
good cause of their choosing.

For more on LongBets, see: www.longbets.com

And for more on the Long Now Foundation, see www.longnow.org

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