more on Ohio Not Official for 10 Days?

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Rick Bradley <rick () rickbradley com>
Date: November 4, 2004 3:58:19 PM EST
To: David Farber <dave () farber net>
Cc: ip () v2 listbox com, Alan Patti <gpslists () gmail com>
Subject: Re: [IP] Ohio Not Official for 10 Days?

For IP:

> What are people's thoughts on this?
[...]
> There remain a couple of questions though. As of yesterday, Secretary
> of State Blackwell said there were about 175,000 provisional ballots,
> but that didn't include about 10 counties that hadn't turned theirs in
> yet. Did those counties include huge democratic stronghold and highly
> populated Cuyahuga county, that contains Cleveland?

A number of us were asking a related question on Wednesday morning, well
before Kerry decided to concede.  The question simply was, "If Kerry
decides to concede the race, but Ohio in a week and a half declares him
the winner, then what?".  Ultimately Kerry answered that question to our
satsifaction by explaining his rationale for conceding, viz.: even with
all the provisional ballets there is no likelihood of success.  Let me
explain further:

It is well-reported that Sen. Edwards was in favor of pushing forward
even as late as Wed. morning, but the campaign ultimately conceded.  You
can be certain that Kerry and all the campaigns' lawyers and all their
political contacts did a extensive research (including numerous people
visiting the Secretary of State's office in person, to say the least),
consulted their numerous models and ran their statistics, analyzed where
these provisional ballets were coming from, and got good word on how
many of them were likely to be validated to convince themselves that
their only remaining avenue to the Presidency was via an arduous battle
in the courts.  We may never know, but the trial lawyer on the ticket
may have wanted to try their chances in the courts.  Given the wide
popular vote margin and the high risk of failure it was probably wise of
Kerry to concede now and rise to a position of integrity that his
opponent opted to forego 4 years earlier.

If the count in Ohio, despite the best-informed indications to the
contrary, should go against the sitting President, I dare say we shall
have a duty to address the matter and see the will of the people done.
I doubt many will argue with that.

On the other hand, my question in return is, "If Kerry, who had more on
the line than any other Democrat, decided, with all his access to
information on the likely outcome, that it was better to concede, then
what do we know that he didn't that is so compelling that we should push
forward against his will?"

Best,
Rick
--
 http://www.rickbradley.com    MUPRN: 361
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