more on Statistical Question

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

There is also the opportunity to stop the noice re evm by impounding 
some machines in the right location and actually doing a code check. is 
anyone suggesting that?



Begin forwarded message:

From: Ken Deifik <kenneth.d () adelphia net>
Date: November 3, 2004 11:34:32 AM EST
To: dave () farber net
Subject: Statistical Question

Dave,
 It occurs to me that one of the questions that could be answered 
without too much trouble, at least for someone with lots of access to 
data and a knowlege of statistics, would be: is there any difference in 
the Bush - Kerry percentages in precincts that used eVoting, especially 
Diebold but all eVoting machines, as opposed to those that used paper 
ballots or some other method of voting.  If this question has any 
meaning for you, I'd ask you to pose to the list, to see anyone with 
the proper skills and access could carry out such a study.

 I hope in the next few days statisticians examine the issue of the 
exit polls.  Since the early 70's the exit polls have always been spot 
on.  I feel ashamed for any journalist who says the exit polls got it 
wrong in FLA in 2000, because it is clear they got it right.

 I have to wonder how John Zogby, who predicted 312 electoral votes for 
Kerry at 5PM EST 11/2, could have gotten the exit polls so wrong.  Or 
really if he did.

 You might wish to know that CNN only changed its exit polls in Ohio 
from Kerry favorable to Bush favorable early on 11/3.

 You can see a screenshot of the Kerry favorable at 
http://tinyurl.com/42qbv .  It is time-stamped 12:21 AM.  An hour and 
20 minutes later it's suddenly got Bush way ahead in the exit polls.  
http://tinyurl.com/568vo

 I just found this posting in the Democratic Underground site
...on several swing states, and EVERY STATE that has EVoting but no 
paper trails has an unexplained advantage for Bush of around +5% when 
comparing exit polls to actual results.

 In EVERY STATE that has paper audit trails on their EVoting, the exit 
poll results match the actual results reported within the margin of 
error.

 So we have MATCHING RESULTS for exit polls vs. voting with audits

 vs.

 A 5% unexplained advantage for Bush without audits.

Anyway, best regards,
 Ken Deifik 

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