[Technical] Land Grab - What If Wal-Mart Got in the WiMax Business?

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne () warpspeed com>
Date: November 28, 2004 12:20:49 PM EST
To: Dewayne-Net Technology List <dewayne-net () warpspeed com>
Subject: [Dewayne-Net] Land Grab - What If Wal-Mart Got in the WiMax 
Business?
Reply-To: dewayne () warpspeed com

November 25, 2004

Land Grab

What If Wal-Mart Got in the WiMax Business?

By Robert X. Cringely
<http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/pulpit20041125.html>

The world has gone crazy for wireless data. In the dismal days since 
the dot-com meltdown of 2001, almost the only happy business news has 
been in the wireless sector, whether it is WiFi, Bluetooth, SMS 
messaging, you name it. WiFi hotspots are everywhere, 3G mobile data is 
slowly coming, and next year, we'll see the first 802.16 WiMax products 
-- the first of these initiatives to cause real concern for the 
telephone companies. WiMax, which promises fixed wireless 70 
megabit-per-second data service over a distance up to 50 kilometers, 
scares the phone companies because it will be for the most part a 
licensed carrier-class service that is capable of completely replacing 
the current local telephone network. If you are a bloated and conniving 
phone company, WiMax is bad news.

So of course, they'll try to kill it.

Many people think current WiFi technology also threatens the telcos, 
but it doesn't. For one thing, WiFi networks are just too darned small, 
and if WiFi hotspot aggregation was going to be a successful business, 
wouldn't we see one or more of the aggregators making money by now? 
Yes, you could link together 100,000 or more hotspots and create the 
equivalent of a wireless Baby Bell, but there simply isn't that kind of 
money being put into commercial hotspots. Even the boldest aggregation 
plan called for only 20,000 hotspots, and that outfit is already out of 
business. It ain't gonna happen. And the reason it won't is also 
because of WiFi's great strength -- the use of unlicensed radio 
spectrum.

It is hard to build a business model around unlicensed radio 
frequencies and here's why: Anyone can use them for any acceptable 
purpose, no matter how stupid. If WiFi came to be a real threat to the 
phone companies, they'd just start their own WiFi businesses to 
undermine any possible hotspot success. This wouldn't be the 
enlightened phone company cannibalizing its own network before someone 
else does -- it would be the very unenlightened telephone company 
trying to screw-up the WiFi space for everyone else.

All a Verizon, a BellSouth, or an SBC would have to do is throw their 
own WiFi access points up on telephone poles all over town, but instead 
of using them for Internet access, they'd use them to continuously 
broadcast bad movies on every available channel. As long as a real 
service was being offered, even if it is a service being used by only 
phone company employees (training videos, 24/7) then the FCC could not 
classify this use spectrum as causing "egregious interference." No 
foul, but also no reliable WiFi service, either, just all "Plan 9 From 
Outer Space" all the time. And that's why the phone company doesn't 
worry about WiFi.

[snip]


Archives at: <http://Wireless.Com/Dewayne-Net>
Weblog at: <http://weblog.warpspeed.com>

-------------------------------------
You are subscribed as interesting-people () lists elistx com
To manage your subscription, go to
 http://v2.listbox.com/member/?listname=ip

Archives at: http://www.interesting-people.org/archives/interesting-people/