Bush Slipping Amongst Tech Execs, Corporate America

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Again happy (well willing) to run counter comments djf



Begin forwarded message:

From: Barry Ritholtz <ritholtz () optonline net>
Date: June 30, 2004 7:35:40 AM EDT
To: Dave Farber <dave () farber net>
Subject: Bush Slipping Amongst Tech Execs, Corporate America

Hey Dave,

I know some of the IP-ers are less than enthralled with political  
discussions, but this goes right to the heart of the core tech/VC  
audience you have.

While a Monday NYT poll showed the President's poll numbers reaching a  
dismal nadir, the bigger picture is where the President's  support is  
faltering: amongst traditionally GOP strongholds. This cannot be the  
sort of news that makes Rove & Co. happy. (The link below includes  
supporting charts showing why execs are so unhappy).

While its still early in the election cycle -- we have 5 months to go  
-- this trend certainly bears close watching right after the Democratic  
Convention to see if it has legs.

Cheers,


Barry L. Ritholtz
Market Strategist
Maxim Group
britholtz () maximgrp com
(212) 895-3614
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


Bush Slipping Amongst Corporate America
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/06/bush_slipping_a.html
(mirror:  http://www.bopnews.com/archives/000937.html#937)

Two recent polls/anecdotal surveys reveal disturbing realities about  
what should be near automatic support for the President amongst GOP  
voters in the upcoming election. They are not good news for the  
incumbent

The first is a 1H 2004 CNBC poll of 30 professional money managers.  
This group manages over $320 Billion dollars -- a third of a trillion  
bucks. They were questioned about the market, the economy and the  
upcoming election. While 92% of these pros thought the stock market  
would do better under Bush than Kerry, a surprising 37% of them were  
supporting Kerry anyway.

For the incumbent, this amounts to a very large vein of discontent  
running through what should be a heavily GOP stronghold. Republican  
presidents do not typically get re-elected when they are only polling a  
63% support on Wall Street.

Adding support to this survey was an article from Tuesday's WSJ: "  
Chinks Appear in Bush Business Armor  
(http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB108846166940349698,00.html)."  
Again, we see a strong vein of discontent amongst what should be a GOP  
stronghold: VCs, technology execs, and corporate executives.

The article took quotes from participants at the Wall Street Journal's  
recent "All Things Digital" conference of senior technology executives.  
"An informal show of hands revealed many more planning to vote for Mr.  
Kerry than Mr. Bush. Even "Undecided" beat the president." The audience  
included large and small company execs, Wall Street Analysts, and  
Venture Capitalists. In the high-tech sector -- a younger and  
less-traditional set of players -- is where the Journal suggests Mr.  
Kerry will find the most fertile ground for support.

This development is yet another example of a demographic voting bloc  
that should be a lock for a GOP President -- but isn't for this one. As  
we have seen in the recent past ( Cubans  
(http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/03/ 
cuban_voters_in.html),Arab-Americans  
(http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/03/arabamericans_s.html),  
etc.), the incumbent should not lightly assume that traditional GOP  
voters will be fully behind him in November:

> "Though George W. Bush has been a decidedly pro-business president, a  
> few cracks are surfacing in what had been a solid wall of business  
> support.
>
> Those small cracks, some stemming from dismay with record budget  
> deficits , others from fears that his foreign policies are clouding  
> the global business climate , have grown wide enough for Sen. John  
> Kerry to launch a behind-the-scenes effort to woo business executives.  
> While the Democratic candidate has no chance of matching the incumbent  
> Republican's business support, even a few notable defectors could help  
> blunt Mr. Bush's advantage, raise doubts with swing voters and draw  
> more money into the Kerry coffers.
>
> The upshot is a mostly quiet but significant struggle over business's  
> allegiance.
>
> For Mr. Kerry, last week's endorsement by onetime corporate icon Lee  
> Iacocca, the former Chrysler Corp. chairman, was only the first of  
> what his campaign promises will be more such staged appearances with  
> business leaders. Mr. Kerry already had won backing from Berkshire  
> Hathaway's Warren Buffett and Apple Computer's Steve Jobs."

As we mentioned back on March 10 ( Market Adapting to Ugly Realities  
(http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/05/market_adapting_1.html)  
), there is a brewing backlash against Corporate America to the foreign  
policy adventures of the present administration.  I'm glad this meme is  
gaining traction in the mainstream media -- hopefully, before too much  
damage is down to US brands and reputations:

WSJ :
> "Among Kerry supporters is Eric Best, a managing director at Morgan  
> Stanley, who says Mr. Bush's tax cuts go too far at the expense of  
> mounting deficits. "I was raised as a fiscal conservative, and I think  
> his fiscal policy is scary," he says. Mr. Best, who remembers Mr. Bush  
> as an upper-class dormitory proctor at Phillips Academy Andover  
> boarding school, says that what really motivates him to stump for Mr.  
> Kerry is the hostility the global strategist finds as he travels.
>
> "I can testify to the extraordinary destruction of 'American Brand  
> Value' accomplished by this administration, from Europe to Hong Kong  
> to Shanghai to Tokyo, and beyond ," he wrote in a recent e-mail that  
> he widely distributed. "If any CEO of a global multinational had  
> accomplished this for his enterprise as quickly and radically as  
> George Bush Jr. has done for the U.S., he would be replaced by the  
> board in no time."

Fascinating stuff.



Source :
Chinks Appear in Bush Business Armor
Kerry, Sensing an Opening, Tries to Gain Political Capital By Courting  
Corporate America
By JACKIE CALMES
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
June 29, 2004; Page A4
http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB108846166940349698,00.html
 

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