2004 MN4: Cosmic Roulette

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

------ Forwarded Message
From: Jim Gillogly <scryer () gmail com>
Reply-To: Jim Gillogly <scryer () gmail com>
Date: Mon, 27 Dec 2004 14:00:08 -0800
To: David Farber <dave () farber net>
Subject: 2004 MN4: Cosmic Roulette

Dave -

It occurred to me that there's an easy way to explain the
odds of a collision with asteroid 2004 MN4 on 13 Apr 2029.
At http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/ (if you can hit it today) NASA
puts the probability at 0.027, much higher than any asteroid
found since the current program started -- 4 on the Torino
Scale, when the previous most dangerous candidates
scored a 1.  This comes out to 1 chance in 37, or 36 to 1
against.  This is the same chance that zero will come up
on a European roulette wheel.  That is, it's something you
can usually ignore, but comes up often enough to keep the
house stinking rich.

i suppose using an analogy based on luck is a bit
problematic when one recalls 13 Apr 2029 is a Friday!
-- 
          Jim Gillogly

------ End of Forwarded Message


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