Two US assumptions have proven optimistic

[Dave Farber <dave () farber net>]

------ Forwarded Message
From: "the terminal of Geoff Goodfellow" <geoff () iconia com>
Date: Tue, 25 Mar 2003 19:48:39 +0100
To: "Dave E-mail Pamphleteer Farber" <farber () cis upenn edu>
Subject: Two US assumptions have proven optimistic

"Two US assumptions have proven optimistic: first that the invading forces
would be greeted as liberators and second that the Iraqi leadership
structure would crumble because of the "shock and awe" air campaign. But
there is nothing yet to suggest the setbacks are of strategic significance.
The big test will come when the US heavy infantry engages the Republican
Guard nearer Baghdad."

-----

Rumsfeld strategy may hit US opinion
By Stephen Fidler
The Financial Times
Published: March 24 2003 22:40 | Last Updated: March 24 2003 22:40

The television pictures broadcast at the weekend of US captives being abused
and humiliated evoked recollections of Mogadishu a decade ago. That is
probably just what they were intended to do.

With no chance to overcome American military might, Saddam Hussein or what
is left of his regime have just one chance: to persuade the American public
and world opinion the US is getting bogged down in another Vietnam.
The setbacks suffered by the US-led invasion force at the weekend may have
increased hopes that a strategy based on propaganda could pay off.

Much of world opinion appears to be on the Iraqi dictator's side, seeing the
US and Britain as the aggressors. Have American troops ever gone into battle
fighting for a cause with such weak support around the world?

The administration of George W. Bush has not shown much interest in what the
rest of the world thinks. However, no administration can conduct a war for
long against US public sentiment.

It must be said at the outset that all military campaigns suffer setbacks.
No military plan, it is said, survives the first engagement with the enemy.
Two US assumptions have proven optimistic: first that the invading forces
would be greeted as liberators and second that the Iraqi leadership
structure would crumble because of the "shock and awe" air campaign. But
there is nothing yet to suggest the setbacks are of strategic significance.
The big test will come when the US heavy infantry engages the Republican
Guard nearer Baghdad.

Still, US casualties and the reminders of Mogadishu will have given some
Americans food for thought. It was in October 1993 that 18 US Rangers were
killed in a firefight with local militias and television pictures beamed
back to the US of some of their bodies being dragged through the streets.

Steven Kull, director of the programme on international policy attitudes at
the University of Maryland, says popular support for the Somalia mission
continued after that incident.

Similarly, he sees no short-term danger for the administration in the early
Iraq casualties. His polling shows Americans expect the campaign to produce
up to 1,000 military casualties. A weekend poll for CNN and USA Today by
Gallup, however, shows 41 per cent think the number will be fewer than 100.

Mr Kull says those in favour of the war break down into two groups: those
who support the objective - 44 per cent when he last polled - and those -
just over 20 per cent - who have rallied to the president. It is this latter
group that could swing against the war if things go badly wrong. But that
will not happen soon.

There is, though, little doubt that the high risk approach favoured by
Donald Rumsfeld, defence secretary, could have an impact on public opinion.
He has been the main advocate for leaner, more mobile US forces. Lighter
forces mean higher risks. Now the downside is becoming apparent: more US
combat casualties than in the first days of Desert Storm in 1991 - not to
speak of Kosovo, Bosnia and Afghanistan.

Despite this, there is a big contrast with Somalia. When US troops were
finally pulled out in 1994, it was clear the risk-averse Clinton
administration was confused over its objectives and not heavily committed to
the mission. By contrast, whatever else may be said about the Bush
administration, it has been willing to take big risks over Iraq.

--snip--

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c
=StoryFT&cid=1048313101667

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
geoff.goodfellow () iconia com * Prague - CZ * telephone +420 603 706 558
"success is getting what you want & happiness is wanting what you get"
http://www.nytimes.com/library/tech/99/01/biztech/articles/17drop.html
http://www.tapsns.com/members-bio/geoff-goodfellow.shtml



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