more on Aznar Rules Out Spanish Troops in Iraq

[Dave Farber <dave () farber net>]

------ Forwarded Message
From: Jose M Guardia <joseg () guardiasociados com>
Date: Wed, 19 Mar 2003 12:58:12 +0100
To: dave () farber net
Subject: Re: [IP] Aznar Rules Out Spanish Troops in Iraq

I think 'wrp' is being a little disingenuous here. If I understand
correctly, he's criticizing Aznar for defying "overwhelming public
opposition to war in Iraq within his own nation" when supporting Bush, but
then he complains precisely because he doesn't defy that overwhelming
opposition further by sending troops into direct combat.

What the AP note doesn't explain is that Aznar explicitly said in his
address to Parliament yesterday that the main reason he wasn't sending
troops into combat was, precisely, that polls seem to show that 8 out of 10
Spaniards declare to be opposed to war in Iraq. Interestingly, and very
rarely reported, is that the same polls show that 2/3 of Spaniards believe
that Saddam does have WMD and that he's a threat to the whole world.

In my view, the decision stems from Aznar's need to do some juggling with
what he believes and what public opinion believes. There is a very strong
opposition to war by public opinion, as in the UK, but unlike Blair he's
only supported in Parliament by his own party which holds the majority of
seats. Meanwhile Blair, even if 140 members of his own Labour party voted
against him yesterday, he still won solidly 412 to 149 because virtually
all the Conservatives in the minority voted for his position.

On further consideration is that many members and a remarkable chunk of
constituencies of Aznar's party, the right-of-center Popular Party, are
Catholic. Considering the Vatican's position on this crisis, the assumption
is that they can come to accept Spain's political support and troops on
humanitarian tasks, but quite a few of them could blatantly oppose to
participating in the military campaign.

JMG


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