Price of Gasoline

[Dave Farber <dave () farber net>]

Still sounds like a rip off to me djf


> Date: Mon, 25 Aug 2003 13:16:04 -0500
> From: "Stephen D. Poe" <sdpoe@acm.o



> To: Dave Farber <dave () farber net>
>
> Dave -
>
> A couple of days ago you asked about the price hike. I've found a couple 
> of items that might be of interest.
>
> U.S. Gas Prices Make Record Jump
> Mon Aug 25, 8:42 AM ET
>
> CAMARILLO, Calif. - Supply shortages pushed average retail gasoline prices 
> up more than 15 cents a gallon nationally during the past two weeks, the 
> largest retail price hike on record since the Lundberg Survey began 
> keeping records 50 years ago.
> ...snipped...
> Temporary refinery shutdowns caused by the massive East Coast/Midwest 
> blackout combined with a break in a major pipeline in Arizona to cause the 
> supply disruptions, Lundberg said.
>
> However, the reopening of the pipeline and the end of the blackout means 
> gas prices should fall thanks to the traditional decline in demand in 
> September and an influx of imported gasoline attracted by the current high 
> prices, she said.
>
> Background
> ----------
> "Why Do Gasoline Prices Fluctuate?"
> "Good weather and vacations cause U.S. summer gasoline demand to average 
> about 6% higher than during the rest of the year. If crude oil prices 
> remain unchanged, gasoline prices would typically increase by 5-6 cents 
> during the summer."
> ...
> "If demand rises quickly or supply declines unexpectedly due to refinery 
> production problems or lagging imports, gasoline inventories (stocks) may 
> decline rapidly. When stocks are low and falling, some wholesalers become 
> concerned that supplies may not be adequate over the short term and bid 
> higher for available product. Such was the case in late summer 1997, as a 
> demand surge drained gasoline stocks and prices rose rapidly."
> - 
> http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/primer_on_gasoline_prices/html/petbro.html
>
> Gasoline & Diesel Fule Update - 
> http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/gdu/gasdiesel.asp
>
> Weekly US Retail Gasoline Prices - 
> http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html
>
> A US DoE estimate from earlier this summer:
> "Short-Term Energy Outlook April 2003
> Summer 2003 Motor Gasoline Outlook
> Summary
> For the upcoming summer season (April to September 2003), high crude oil 
> costs and other factors are expected to yield average retail motor 
> gasoline prices higher than those of last year. Current crude oil prices 
> reflect a substantial uncertainty premium due to concerns about the 
> current conflict in the Persian Gulf, lingering questions about whether 
> Venezuelan oil production will recover to near pre-strike levels in time 
> for the peak driving season, and the impact of recent disruptions in 
> Nigerian oil output. Moreover, unusually low crude oil and gasoline 
> inventory levels at the outset of the driving season are expected to keep 
> prices high throughout much of the summer and declines from current high 
> levels are likely to be constrained.
> ·  Retail gasoline prices (regular grade) are expected to average $1.56 
> per gallon, 17 cents per gallon higher than last summer’s average and 
> slightly above the average in the summers of 2000 and 2001. Because of the 
> uncertainty surrounding the crude oil market and the domestic 
> refining/distribution system, even if no new disruptions to crude oil and 
> gasoline supply occur, a 95 percent confidence range extends as much as 16 
> cents per gallon to either side of the baseline forecast during the 
> upcoming driving season. New disruptions could result in prices above the 
> baseline forecast while definitive resolutions of current problems could 
> result in prices lower than the baseline forecast. Although we expect 
> prices to retreat slowly after nearing the previous nominal monthly 
> average record of $1.69 per gallon in March, there remains a significant 
> probability that gasoline prices could be above those of the baseline 
> projection. It should be noted that the projected (baseline) average 
> summer gasoline price, when adjusted for inflation, is still well below 
> the record reached during the summer of 1980 (about $2.77 per gallon in 
> year 2003 dollars).
> ·  Gasoline Demand is projected to average 9.18 million barrels per day, a 
> new record, up 150,000 barrels per day, or 1.6 percent, from last summer. 
> The growth comes amid the gradual acceleration of the U.S. economy out of 
> the 2001-02 recession despite the higher retail prices.
> ·  Total beginning of season motor gasoline stocks are estimated at 200 
> million barrels, 13 million barrels below those at the same time last 
> year. They are projected to rise to 201 million barrels at the end of the 
> season. Inventory changes are therefore not expected to make a net 
> contribution to this summer’s gasoline supply, resulting in an even higher 
> reliance on imported sources than in previous summers."
> - http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/sum-outlook.pdf

-------------------------------------
You are subscribed as interesting-people () lists elistx com
To manage your subscription, go to
 http://v2.listbox.com/member/?listname=ip

Archives at: http://www.interesting-people.org/archives/interesting-people/