Alsop: My Outrageous Cellular Call

[Dave Farber <dave () farber net>]

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From: Monty Solomon <monty () roscom com>

My Outrageous Cellular Call

Virtually no one is willing to predict that CDMA will unseat GSM. Except me.

FORTUNE
Monday, October 28, 2002
By Stewart Alsop

Hold on to your seat; I'm going to make a major prediction here. CDMA
will unseat GSM as a worldwide standard by 2010.

Now that you've calmed your beating heart, you might wonder what geek
drug I took. Take my word for it: What I'm saying is heresy in the
world of cellular phones. I'm anticipating that within eight years
the system that powers 70% of the more than one billion cellphones
used today will be mostly replaced by a system that runs only about
5% of today's cellphones. People in Europe will rear back in disgust
at how the Ugly American Technology Columnist is blinded by his
parochialism. Wireless carriers, particularly ones that have recently
installed GSM equipment (AT&T, Cingular, and T-Mobile in the U.S.),
will shake their heads in disgust. Technologists from all over will
just mutter, "Betamax," referencing Sony's costly VCR-era lesson that
proven technical superiority doesn't make for global standards.

...

http://www.fortune.com/indext.jhtml?channel=print_article.jhtml&doc_id=20981
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