The Chip Glut

[Dave Farber <dave () farber net>]

------ Forwarded Message
From: "James H. Morris" <james.morris () cs cmu edu>
Date: Tue, 08 Oct 2002 11:54:20 -0400
To: dave () farber net
Subject: The Chip Glut

Like the farmers and the steel makers before us, the computer industry is
encountering the horror of glut conditions. Moore's law, which brings an
annual doubling of computer performance, has been hailed as a triumph of
engineering; but it's a business disaster. The increasing numbers of chips
being produced, each with far more power than the last generation's, have
nowhere to go.

What to do?
1. Software bloat? While the chip makers have been speeding up computers at
an exponential rate, the software producers have been adding features at
only a linear rate. Programmers must redouble their efforts to fill the
computers with useless code.
2. Tail fins? When the auto industry hit its stride, it discovered styling.
We need laptops with bigger dongles and servers that emit a throaty roar.
3. Fashion? Every year IBM produces a new line of ThinkPad's in basic
black, just like Henry Ford's Model T. Steve Jobs, taking a note from
Alfred Sloan, offers colors and titanium.
4. Edible chips? The silicon chip needs to adopt the economic model of its
lowly cousin the potato chip. Supermarket aisles could be filled with
nourishing smart chips. They could even serve useful medical purposes after
being ingested, monitoring intestinal conditions or blocking fat digestion.
5. Exploding computers? The munitions industry solved the oversupply
problem long ago. The power density of today's laptop batteries is
approaching that of TNT. Let's drop our old laptops on Baghdad. The ones'
that don't blow up will drive Saddam nuts, just like they do us.
6. Welfare for the computer industry? No one can deny that, like food and
steel, computers are vital for our national welfare. Therefore, like the
farmers, we should be paid not to produce them. The fab lines should be
idled, the programmers told to cool it, and we should all be paid!
7. Useful, desirable, products? Nah.


James H. Morris
Dean, School of Computer Science
412 609-5000
http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~jhm


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