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IP: 4G Status
From: Dave Farber <dave () farber net>
Date: Tue, 30 Jul 2002 06:15:42 -0400
------ Forwarded Message From: Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne () warpspeed com> [Note: This item comes from reader Janos Gereben. DLH] At 18:14 -0700 7/25/02, Janos G. wrote:
From: "Janos G." <janos451 () earthlink net> To: "D.H." <dewayne () warpspeed com> Subject: 4G Status Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2002 18:14:55 -0700 MIME-Version: 1.0 What is 4G? by Ray Hegarty / http://www.the451.com Thu, 25 Jul 2002 With the wireless industry continuing to struggle with debt, plunging share prices and delays in the rollout of 2.5G and 3G technology, the question of what will constitute a fourth-generation wireless system might appear irrelevant. Yet the larger network providers and wireless carriers are already beginning to formulate areas for potential research. THE MESSAGE Mobile systems pass through technology shifts every 10 years or so, and if large network systems providers and wireless carriers want to remain competitive, they need to plan for future trends and technologies and allocate R&D budgets now rather than later. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE Involvement in so-called academic or conceptual R&D around 4G enables market leaders to play a significant role once the battle between future competing standards occurs. THE451 TAKE We expect several 4G concepts to trickle down into future 3GPP releases. While market leaders do not want wireless to move too quickly, they recognize the need to remain aware of technologies that could cannibalize their own value proposition. BUSINESS MODEL Historically, mobile systems have tended to go through technology shifts every 10 years. In order to remain competitive, large network systems providers and wireless carriers need to plan for future trends and technologies and allocate R&D budgets now rather than later. We think that several '4G' concepts currently under discussion could find their way into the 3G system infrastructure in the future. That's because 3G is not one release, but a series of releases offering fixes and enhancements that build upon previous versions. Involvement in so-called academic, or conceptual, R&D around 4G will enable market leaders to play a significant role in the battle between competing standards. Market leaders do not want wireless to move too quickly, but they recognize the need to remain aware of technologies that might cannibalize their own value proposition. For example, the rapid deployment of 802.11 technology in Europe and the US threatens carriers' and cellular network infrastructure providers' bottom lines. One of the key areas of 4G R&D will be enabling devices to switch between different types of networks. COMPETITION Several industry standards groups made up of manufacturers, carriers and academic institutions - including the IPv6 Forum, SDR Forum, 3GPP and the Wireless World Research Forum - are helping to formulate a vision of a 4G wireless world. The Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) and the Mobile Wireless Internet Forum (MWIF) are also expected to play a part in 4G development. Manufacturers and carriers are already looking to build on existing 3G specifications. AT&T has been developing a network prototype called 4G Access that combines Enhanced Data Rates for GSM Evolution (EDGE) with wideband orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM). Nortel has been working on software radio power amplifier technology needed to make higher wireless speeds a reality, and the streaming media research group of HP Labs has been working on systems for delivering multimedia content over next-generation networks. Meanwhile, Ericsson has invested over $10m to fund research of next-generation CDMA and 4G mobile technology at the University of California. NTT DoCoMo's research labs are constructing a trial 4G network based on the ITU's proposals. The system combines variable spreading factor (VSF) and OFDM technologies. Japan's Ministry of Post and Telecommunications is shelling out subsidies of over ¥2bn ($17m) through Japan's Communications Research Laboratory and Telecommunications Advancement Organization to develop core 4G technology, such as software radios. Research is not just centered on new network concepts and radio interfaces. There is a concerted attempt to identify how wireless technology can complement a more user-focused wireless world. One major shift already taking place in the wireless business model, and one we expect to inform the 4G business and technology model for the future, is the move from a device-driven world to a service- and experience-centered world. Studies are now assessing new ways that users will interact with wireless systems, new services and applications that might become possible with the new technologies, and new business models that may prevail in the future, overcoming the traditional user-server-provider hierarchy. TECHNOLOGY At the most general level, the 4G architecture will include three basic areas of connectivity: personal area networking (PAN), local high-speed access points on the network, and cellular connectivity. The dominant PAN technology right now is Bluetooth, which enables, for example, devices such as cellular phones, PCs and home entertainment systems and monitors to talk with each other at distances of less than 100 meters. In the second level of connectivity, devices can connect to high-speed access points on the network, called 'hot spots.' Wireless LAN, or 892.11x, is the dominant technology here, with connection speeds of about 10Mbps. The third level, cellular connectivity, will reach connection speeds of up to 30Mbps by 2005, and 100Mbps by 2010, some researchers predict. In addition, IP version 6 is expected to enable deployment of voice and multimedia data over IP. For some reason, IPv6 was overlooked when the ITU was formulating its 3G spec. An IPv6 forum has been established to promote the development of applications for the new protocol. Members include Cisco, Hewlett-Packard and Compaq, telecom operators AT&T, BT and NTT DoCoMo, and telecom equipment manufacturers Ericsson, Nokia and Motorola. The glue for all this is likely to be software defined radio. SDR enables devices such as cell phones, PDAs, PCs and a whole range of connected devices to scan the airwaves for the best possible method of connectivity, at the best price. In an SDR environment, functions that were formerly carried out solely in hardware - such as the generation of the transmitted radio signal and the tuning of the received radio signal - are performed by software. Thus, the radio is programmable and able to transmit and receive over a wide range of frequencies while emulating virtually any desired transmission format. STRENGTHS As a result of the lessons learned from WAP and initial 2.5G, the industry is making a much more concerted attempt to identify how future wireless technology can complement the wireless business model. 4G business and technology development will be informed by the shift from a device-driven world to a service- and experience-centered world. WEAKNESSES There are significant technical challenges to overcome. OPPORTUNITIES Interconnectivity drives the notion of ubiquitous computing - where small computational devices are embedded into our everyday environment in a way that allows them to be operated seamlessly and transparently. These devices are meant to be active and aware of their surroundings so that they can react and emit information when needed. THREATS Interconnectivity will require an agreement over basic communication standards - and history suggests reaching an agreement will be problematic. The current sluggish economic environment will lead to convergence, less competition and more conservative deployments schedules.
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