IP: more on Too weak to compete

[Dave Farber <dave () farber net>]

------ Forwarded Message
From: david.e.young () verizon com
Date: Sat, 20 Jul 2002 14:19:28 -0400
To: dave () farber net
Subject: IP: Too weak to compete

Dave,

I don't disagree with Eli's analysis or general conclusions regarding the
telecom sector, but I think his analysis is incomplete in that it only
recognizes the intense competition within the traditional telecom sector
and fails to acknowledge the equally significant competition that the
telecom sector faces from external forces like wireless substitution,
broadband, cable tv, wi-fi, UWB, email, instant messaging and other
disruptive communications technologies.  I don't expect these other modes
to diminish in the future.  On the contrary, I expect that they will
continue to provide consumers with increasingly viable communication
alternatives to traditional wireline telephony services.  Wireline telecom
may contract and consolidate back into a healthy sector, but even if it
collapsed to a single wireline alternative (which I don't expect), that
carrier would not have anything close to a monopoly over consumer or
commercial communication services.

Wake up folks, this is not 1984 anymore.  Twisted copper wires and analog
dialtone are no longer the only (or even predominant) way people
communicate electronically these days and never will be again!

-David

------ End of Forwarded Message

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