Telecom in the Time of Crash, by Kas Kalba

[Dave Farber <dave () farber net>]

Date: Tue, 03 Dec 2002 14:59:04 -0500
From: Tony Oettinger & John LeGates <pirprvws () fas harvard edu>
Subject: Telecom in the Time of Crash by Kas Kalba

Greetings,

The following new Program incidental paper is now available on line:

Kalba, Kas
Telecom in the Time of Crash
<[41 pages; November 2002/Incidental Paper]>

This paper offers a perspective on how the world's telecom industry has
evolved from a sleepy utility to a competitive marketplace to an industry
afflicted by bankruptcy and breakdown. The author traces the origins of the
modern industry from AT&T's breakup to its recent "crash," fostered by
aggressive CEOs and investment bankers as well as faulty entrepreneurial
visions and business models. He also touches on Europe's misguided
government policies in the case of next-generation mobile licensing and
spectrum auctions ("3G"). The paper examines the shift from the largely
successful introduction of competition in North America, Europe and
developed Asia during the 1980s to the new leadership and financing
approaches that were introduced in the mid and late 1990s. It summarizes
the twin tendencies of decentralized technology innovation and industry
growth (both within the United States and on a world scale) and of
centralized industry guidance by financial and government entities. The
paper assesses which companies have been winners and losers through these
dynamic changes, emphasizing how new entrants such as Vodafone, Nokia,
Hutchison and Cisco were able to challenge entrenched incumbents, not to
mention prevailing theories that a few players would soon dominate the
industry. Focusing on the fiber and 3G arenas, the last part of the paper
outlines alternative theories of the telecom crash, provides an overall
explanation, and addresses where the industry may be headed. The author
presents several scenarios of what may come next and discusses the
prospects of a new expanded government role. He ends by raising some
questions about whether regulatory intervention is necessary to curb recent
excesses or whether the market can be assumed to have learned its lesson.
ISBN 1-879716-85-2 I-02-2

You can link directly to the Acrobat PDF version, which can be downloaded
or printed
http://pirp.harvard.edu/pubs_pdf/kalba/kalba-i02-2.pdf

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Sincerely,




John LeGates and Tony Oettinger


Anthony G. Oettinger

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