IP: The next wave of terror - Scenario planners trying to predict the unthinkable

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

As someone who has done a number of these exercises let me say loudly they 
are NOT FUN. They are the hardest most emotionally disturbing days I have 
had and I feel tired and shook after each one. BUT they help a lot. 
Thinking outside the box is valuable for those who listen to these "games" 
and helps keep us safe.

Herman Kahn of the RAND Corp  and of Thinking the Unthinkable, was a master 
of scenarios and his work , I belive, help us survive thermonuclear Armageddon.

Dave

> The next wave of terror
> Scenario planners trying to predict the unthinkable
> <mailto:kfagan () sfchronicle com>Kevin Fagan, Chronicle Staff Writer
> Sunday, October 28, 2001
> <http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file/chronicle/info/copyright>©2001 
> San Francisco Chronicle
>
> URL: 
> <http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2001/10/28/MN180760.DTL>http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2001/10/28/MN180760.DTL 
>
>
> Imagine your most unthinkable nightmare of the next terrorist attack. Now 
> try to imagine something even worse.
>
> Maybe then you'll come close to what scenario planners -- experts who 
> craft models for any manner of disaster -- are trying to prepare for in 
> America.
>
> The nation has fired up its most imaginative thinkers to try to map out 
> what could be the next wave of terrorism, and the picture is not pretty. 
> The operating premise is that the hijackings and anthrax attacks are a 
> tepid warm- up for a truly big assault -- which could range from massive 
> truck-bomb explosions to infecting millions with disease to nuclear 
> annihilation -- and that we're not fully ready to combat it.
>
> Now here is the silver lining in that dark cloud: These are simply the 
> worst-case scenarios, not reality. Yet.
>
> In the days after Sept. 11, critics on Capitol Hill and elsewhere made 
> much of their belief that America's vulnerability to the aerial broadsides 
> was less a failure of intelligence than a failure of imagination. 
> Accordingly, the Army,
>
> CIA, weapons labs, even financiers and Hollywood writers are trying hard 
> to make sure that doesn't happen again.
>
> And with the nation already on edge over daily reports about the spread of 
> anthrax, the heat is on to get the schematics done fast. Preparations are 
> sprouting coast to coast.
>
> At the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, scientists are quietly 
> outlining ways chemical, biological and nuclear sneak attacks could be 
> carried out, and perfecting tactics to counter them. Using data from 
> previous disasters, including the Three Mile Island nuclear leak, they 
> have already created evacuation plans for heads of state attending events 
> that get hit by firebombs or crop-dusters carrying poisons.
>
> In Washington, D.C., the Pentagon is crafting scenarios for handling 
> suicide bombings or gas attacks in crowded plazas, and analysts are 
> assessing how to keep the country running if Congress is obliterated. 
> Dartmouth College professors are helping the military envision hackers 
> crippling the Internet -- and even Lloyd's of London is revising formulas 
> for how to compensate for carnage it previously thought impossible.
>
>
>
>
> WAR GAME

<snip>



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