IP: :The Day The World Came To Its Senses?

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

> Date: Mon, 08 Oct 2001 22:24:51 -0700
> From: "Robert J. Berger" <rberger () ultradevices com>
>
>
> The Day The World Came To Its Senses?
> By Bill Moore
> http://evworld.com/databases/storybuilder.cfm?storyid=245
>
> This week, Phil Watts, the chairman of Royal Dutch Shell, gave a
> remarkable speech in New York, just three weeks after the tragedy of
> September 11th.
>
> Accustomed to making and approving business decisions and technology
> plans that extend decades into the future, Watts told an audience
> assembled under the auspices of the United Nations Development
> Program, that Shell, one of the largest oil companies in the world,
> was preparing for the "End of the Hydrocarbon Age."
>
> He painted two possible scenarios he termed, "Dynamics as Usual" and
> "The Spirit of the Coming Age."
>
> Under the first scenario, Shell envisions an "evolutionary" carbon
> shift from coal to natural gas to renewables. Petroleum's current 40
> percent global energy share will drop to 25 percent by 2050. Natural
> gas market share will climb to 20 percent while the remainder will
> come from a combination of nuclear and various renewable sources.
>
> Under "The Spirit of the Coming Age" scenario, the world would
> experience a far more dramatic shift from carbon-intensive fuels to
> hydrogen. Watt's stated this second scenario, "explores something
> rather more revolutionary, the potential for a truly hydrogen economy,
> growing out of new and exciting developments in fuel cells, advanced
> hydrocarbon technologies and carbon dioxide sequestration."
>
> Watts envisioned fuel cells beginning to reach serious market
> penetration by 2025 and as a result dramatically altering the energy
> landscape long before oil becomes scarce.
>
> Watts isn't just talking the talk. He has pledged to walk the walk by
> committing between $500 million and $1 billion over the next five
> years to develop new energy businesses, concentrating primarily on
> solar and wind energy.
>
> Watts concluded his remarks by saying that oil companies can no longer
> assume they will dominate the next 100 years as they have the previous
> century. "That would be a very complacent view."
>
> Phil Watt's comments in New York this week are truly remarkable in the
> light of the events on and after September 11, 2001. Here is a major
> oil company executive publicly stating that the world is changing and
> his company plans to lead in this transition. He pointed out that not
> only does he intend to make Shell "a prime mover in this transitional
> period" but he also noted that "one in five of the world's population
> does not have access to commercial energy. It is our goal to
> contribute to the development of an affordable, sustainable energy
> system which will help reduce this sort of inequality."
>
> <snip>
>
> The challenge of using hydrogen, however, also creates new
> opportunities because it is best made and used on site, as
> needed. There are few places on earth that don't have sufficient
> sunlight and wind to make feasible the electrolysis of water from
> photovoltaics or wind power. Given the sharp drop in the cost of wind
> generated electricity, now as low as 4-5 cents per kilowatt and the
> equally sharp decline in the cost of photovoltaic energy technology --
> which is forecast to continue to drop even more -- it is entirely
> possible that these technologies someday can be "married" to create a
> practical, affordable, self-contained generation system that provides
> a home, a business or a community with electricity, purified water and
> sufficient heat to warm and cool buildings.
>
> <snip>
>
> Or instead of electrolyzing water, someday we could have waste water
> treatment facilities that feed tanks of hydrogen-producing algae. This
> approach promises to be even more cost-effective. Communities could
> generate their own supply of hydrogen. The problem of transporting
> hydrogen would be minimized if not eliminated.
>
>  Imagine the community of the future where algae-produced hydrogen
> powers fuel cells that produce electricity, clean water and district
> or process heat. And because of advances in energy efficiency and
> smart community planning, the homes and businesses in the community
> will utilize far less than they do today.
>
>  And in the spirit of Phil Watts' vision, this technology would be
> available to all.  Rural villages in Malawi and Uzbekistan and
> Honduras could have the energy they need to improve their quality of
> life. The standard of living would go up, there would be greater
> literacy, less environmental degradation and a lower birth rate.
>
> <snip>
>
> Is such a scenario feasible? Is it technically, economically, and
> politically possible? I believe it is.
>
> The bigger question is, "Can human nature adapt to this brave new
> world?" That is the real unknown. We are resilient. We are
> adaptive. And to be perfectly honest, do we have any other choice? The
> wider the gulf grows between the have and have-nots of the world, the
> more inequities we will see and the more terrorism we will experience.
>
> The hydrogen economy won't solve the problem of human nature, but it
> might just put us back in touch with the rhythms of the planet on
> which we all depend.  Is this the impossible dream? Perhaps. I will be
> the first to admit it is imperfect.  But I also believe it is one
> worth dreaming and more importantly, striving to achieve. September
> 11th marks a great turning point in the history of man.  Which path we
> take will determine whether it marks the beginning of the end or
> just the end of the beginning.
>
> --
> Robert J. Berger
> UltraDevices, Inc.
> 257 Castro Street, Suite 223 Mt. View CA. 94041
> Email: rberger () ultradevices com http://www.ultradevices.com
> Voice: 408-882-4755 Fax: 408-490-2868



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