IP: epidemiology of terrorism

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Comments on this appreciated djf

> From: "Chad Mulligan" <yaii () altavista net>
> To: dave () farber net
> Date: Mon, 19 Nov 2001 07:12:51 +0800
>
>
> While it's common to talk about an "epidemic of terrorism", few people 
> take the metaphor seriously.  One person who does is Ronald LaPorte.  He's 
> the founder of the online Epidemiology Supercourse, headquartered at 
> http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/ and replicated at 32 mirror sites 
> worldwide.  Dr.LaPorte has proposed to extend the obvious success of the 
> first supercourse with a new program on Disasters and Terrorism, and has 
> published his grant proposal at 
> http://www.pitt.edu/AFShome/s/u/super2/public/html/GRANT2/
>
> Now, I'm not an epidemiologist but I have a biomedical background and this 
> seems like an eminently sound idea. Epidemiology is the only science whose 
> application has totally eradicated a great scourge of mankind, namely 
> smallpox in the wild.  It would be foolish not to try to extend the 
> methodology that led to that success to other disorders of human populations.
>
> You don't have to like Richard Dawkins' politics or believe in the 
> ontological reality of memes [see note below] to recognize that there's a 
> remarkable similarity between epidemiological notions and the phenomena of 
> terrorism.  Smallpox was eradicated by the application of four basic 
> principles that can easily be extended to apply to terrorism itself:
>
> * distinguish among toxins, diseases, and infectious agents: bombs, 
> suicide detonations, and terroristic tracts and schools, respectively.
> * immunization of threatened populations: education in  the futility of 
> terrorism and provision of alternative conflict-resolution options. Many 
> commentators have attributed terrorism to the helplessness of third world 
> poverty; it would be marvelous to see actual data on "natural experiments" 
> that show causation rather than mere correlation.
>
> * eradication of reserviors of infection ("draining the swamps") - 
> destruction of terrorist training camps, replacement of governments 
> supporting terrorism, and interdiction of organized financial support.
>
> * quarrantine of both reservoirs and individual infected victims: 
> embargoes against state sponsors and imprisonment of terrorism advocates. 
> This point suggests that censorship of communications may be more 
> effective than sanctions against material trade. Of course there are 
> enforcement problems for, say, books smuggled inside bags of grain.
>
> Clearly this vastly oversimplifies the problem of terrorism, but I hope it 
> also shows the great opportunities for valuable research.  It's important 
> not to dilute the scientific basis of this approach with political agendas 
> that lead to pseudo-science with preconceived results.  The quality 
> control that is built into LaPorte's program is one defense against this.
> - Chad Mulligan
>
> [note (these are my own definitions)]
> Gene: a minimal self-replicating constellation of dynamical attractors 
> supervienient on the laws of biochemistry.
>
> Meme: a minimal self-replicating constellation of dynamical attractors 
> supervenient on the laws of neurobehavioral development and learning. 
> Terrorism is probably not a meme by this definition, but more analogous to 
> species or clade.
>
> --
>
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