IP: ipv6 adoption....

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

> Date: Mon, 12 Nov 2001 12:50:25 -0500 (EST)
> From: "Mike O'Dell" <mo () ccr org>
> To: ietf () ietf org
>
>
>
> Perry,
>
> anyone imagining that ipv6 will get an observable percentage
> of total endpoint penetration any time soon only needs to look
> at the onslaught of microcontrollers starting to ship with
> IPv4 technology integral to them.
>
> the microcontroller universe outnumbers everything else
> by a huge margin, so it doesn't take a very large penetration
> of that space to make incredible numbers, and at the rate
> that's growing, it will be a substantial penetration.
>
> these machines will have v4 but it will be a very long time
> before they have v6.  why? because they are very resource
> constrained, nobody will spend money near-term for dual-stack,
> and a v4 product you can ship today.
>
> also note that a number of chip makers are doing "hardware"
> implementations of ipv4 stacks, up to and through transport
> level crypto.  i'm not suggesting i think this is unilaterally a great
> idea (quite the contrary), but they are being built and getting
> designed into things.  some of these are "TCP UARTS", designed
> to let really simple systems suddenly become web and internet
> enabled, and others are designed to be high-performance devices
> to offload some server processing.  again, they are getting
> designed into things and once there, essentially immutable.
>
> ipv6 may eventually be visible, but i predict most people
> currently reading this will have grandchildren using ipv4
> technology, whether they want to or not.
>
> the first window for real volume penetration has been lost.
>
> whether there will be another window is yet to be seen.
>
> this is neither an attack on or defence of anything - it's
> just my reading of the forces at work.
>
>         cheers,
>         -mo
>
>
> =============================
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>         Mike O'Dell, President
>         Compass Rose Labs
>         3143 Cobb Hill Lane
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>
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