IP: Bell Labs Predictions For 2025 -- from Telecom Digest

[Dave Farber <farber () cis upenn edu>]

[ I love the way the NEW Bell Labs rests it reputation on the OLD Bell Labs 
with its world class real researchers.  Even with this nasty, this is good 
reading if hyped a bit djf]

Date: Sun, 14 Nov 1999 00:51:52 -0500
From: The Old Bear <oldbear () arctos com>
Subject: Bell Labs Predictions For 2025

Bell Labs predicts a "Global Communications Skin" by 2025
MURRAY HILL, NEW JERSEY, U.S.A., 1999 NOV 12 (NB) -- By Steven
Bonisteel, Newsbytes. If you think you are plugged in now - with
your Internet connection, your wireless phone and your Palm Pilot -
just wait until 2025. By then, say experts at Bell Labs, the
research arm of Lucent Technologies Inc. [NYSE:LU], you'll be wired
into a global communications network through devices as small as a
lapel pin.
What's more, they say, that global network will be more like a
"communications skin" capable of sensing everything from weather
patterns to how much milk is in your refrigerator.
"We are already building the first layer of a mega-network that
will cover the entire planet like a skin," Bell Labs President Arun
Netravali said today in a document loaded with prognostications
from lab staff. "As communication continues to become faster,
smaller, cheaper and smarter in the next millennium, this skin, fed
by a constant stream of information, will grow larger and more
useful."
Netravali said that "skin" will include millions of electronic
measuring devices - thermostats, pressure gauges, pollution
detectors, cameras, microphones - all monitoring cities, roadways,
and the environment.
"All of these will transmit data directly into the network, just
as our skin transmits a constant stream of sensory data to our
brains," he said. "Such systems might be used for anything from
constantly monitoring the traffic on a local road, water level in a
river to the temperature at the beach or the supply of food in a
refrigerator."
Bell Labs spokeswoman Wendy Zajack told Newsbytes that the
predictions for the future of communications technology were
released, in part, to mark the approaching Millennium. In addition,
she said, with Bell Labs facing its 75th anniversary, the
prognostications underscore the organization's reputation for
"brain power."
And that's no idle boast. Bell Labs researchers have garnered at
least two Nobel Prizes in physics (including one in 1956 for the
1947 discovery of the laser). Zajack notes that Bell Labs, bundled
with Lucent when that company was spun off from AT&T Corp. [NYSE:T]
in 1996, files applications for more than three patents a day and
has more than 30,000 inventions to it credit since it was formed 75
years ago.
Netravali said some recent breakthroughs at Bell Labs, particularly
in areas that are boosting bandwidth and reducing the size of
electronic components, will help bring about their vision of
communications in the new Millennium.
Noting that Bell Labs researchers recently demonstrated the first
long-distance (300 kilometer) transmission of data at a trillion
bits per second over a single strand of optical fiber, Netravali
said that, in 10 years, a single fiber will carry a quadrillion
bits per second.
"This will put nearly limitless amounts of bandwidth at users'
fingertips," the document stated. "It is this plentiful and
inexpensive bandwidth that will enable high-quality
videoconferencing and faster, 'always-on' Internet connections in
the next century."
Netravali said the huge bandwidth will be able to support the
massive amount of data required for all the devices wired to the
global communication "skin" to communicate as machine-to-machine
and object-to-object communication increases. By 2010, he said, the
volume of this "infrachatter" will actually surpass communication
between humans.
"At home, your dishwasher will be able to call its manufacturer
when it is malfunctioning and the manufacturer will run diagnostics
remotely," Netravali said. "Or your lawn sprinkler could check the
Web site of the National Weather Service before turning itself on,
to make sure the forecast doesn't call for rain."
The Bell Labs researchers said waiting by the phone, surfing the
Internet, and face-to-face business meetings will go the way of
eight-track tapes.
"Software-driven intelligent networks and wireless technology will
enable people to be reached wherever they are and will give the
consumer the power to choose if a message will be an e-mail, voice
mail or video clip," said Rich Howard, wireless research director.
Joseph Olive, director of language modeling, said system-on-a-chip
technology that will lead to communications devices - "metaphones"
- the size of jewelry that will be voice operated.
"Dialing a phone will be a concept learned only in history
classes," he said. "Placing a call to mom will be as simple as
saying 'Mom.' The small metaphones on your lapel will be able to
read Web sites and e-mail to you."
Raju Rishi, strategy director of product management, said advances
in videoconferencing and high-speed networking will lead to a rise
in telecommuting to virtual offices and to virtual business travel
as well.
"Combined with directional microphones, surround-sound audio, and
3-D (three-dimensional) images, the effect is much closer to that
of a face-to-face meeting," Rishi said, adding that, as the
technology grows more immersive, there will be no need for business
colleagues to gather in one place.
Kenan Sahin, Bell Labs vice-president of software technology, said
the Internet will be transformed from a cache of data to a smarter
"HiQNet" in which personal "cyberclones" will anticipate humans'
information requirements.
"This HiQNet, which will be as immediate as dial tone is today,
will be so integral to our lives it will become practically
invisible," the document said. "People will use anything from a TV
to a wireless lapel phone for access."
Said Sahin: "The first communication revolution of the 20th Century
gave us telephone-based communications. The second gave us
computer-based communications like e-mail and the Internet. The 21st
Century will bring us a knowledge-based communications revolution.
"We will be able to get expert help for everything from sending
baby photos to our family to finding the perfect job. That same
network intelligence may also save people money. You'll be able to
say to your communications device, 'I want to talk to Bob in
Chicago,' and the device will get you the best deal on the
connection.
"The Internet will evolve from being a complexity in our lives that
we have to spend time mastering, to a behind-the-scenes tool that
will improve our quality of life," Sahin said. "In the end, (it
will) make us more human, not less."

Reported by Newsbytes.com, http://www.newsbytes.com