IP: Japan's Upcoming Election on October 20

[Dave Farber <farber () central cis upenn edu>]

Posted-Date: Mon, 30 Sep 1996 02:33:55 -0400
Date: Mon, 30 Sep 1996 15:33:52 +0900
To: Dave Farber <farber () central cis upenn edu>
From: sja () glocom ac jp (Stephen J. Anderson)
Subject: Japan's Upcoming Election on October 20


Japan is about to hold an election under their new system of 300 single-seat 
districts and 200 proportional representation (PR) seats.  The PR seats are
spread across 11 regions to ensure broad representation, but nobody here is
sure how this system will work. 


The leading Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is more ready for an election, and
seeks to take advantage of the disarray of other parties that makes the 
timing ideal for the LDP.  The leaders also avoid talking about their
scandals 
(both LDP Secretary General Kato and Prime Minister Hashimoto are vulnerable) 
and the calendar can only get worse in their eyes as a consumption tax rise
(April
1997) and constitutional limit (July 1997) loom ahead.


On the surface it appears that the LDP and a conservative rival New
Frontier party 
are competing for first place and many smaller parties seek to become the
third pole.
But the current allegiances of politicians are too uncertain to give a glib
scenerio 
about two-party systems.   


In Tokyo yesterday, news TV furthered the intensive coverage of the
dissolution of 
the Diet and a set of election forecasts.  Among yesterdays' best was TV
Asahi's
"Sunday Project" that features the investigative journalist Tahara Soichiro.  
Along with Tahara, the leadoff guest was the former Speaker of the House Doi 
Takako explaining her reasons for returning to the Social Democratic Party
of Japan.  Unfortunately, the political analysts present gave little hope to
the SDPJ "rojin" or old people's party.  Among the analysts from TV Asahi, 
Mainichi and Asahi newspapers, none were willing to give the SDPJ much 
more that 20-30 seats.  Almost all there predicted a coalition led by the 
LDP will govern Japan after the election.


I was impressed by the predictions (or should I say guesses) that the analysts
all offered for seats won by the various parties.  LDP ranged from 210-245, 
NFP (Shinshinto) ranged from 120-150, and the Democratic Party (Minshuto) 
ranged widely from 40-75 seats.  But none of these numbers captured the 
overall tenor of the election as well as the opening statement by the pundits.


The headliner of Sunday Project was the analyst, Morita Minoru, whose past 
"tenkoh" from left to right has made him personally versed in the turns of
politics.  
Morita (often featured in English opinion pages of Japan Times and Nikkei
Weekly) 
did his usual good synopsis:  this election will lead to the temporary 
"resurrection" or "revival" (fukukatsu) of the Liberal Democrats.  


Though none of the analysts would go so far to give the LDP an outright
majority 
(which I believe the LDP may grab), many did say that winning 240 of 500
seats 
was possible.  A surprising view was that Hashimoto may lose his Okayama 
district to Shinshinto agriculture-zoku expert and former minister, Kato
Mutsuki.   
Also, turnout is expected to be low (in the 60 percentile) and the role of
interest 
groups such as Sokkagakkai and organized labor is seen as uncertain.


The post-election coalition is up for grabs.  With all parties (except the 
Communists who may win as many as 25-30 seats) as possible partners for the
LDP, a coalition could go many different directions.  The biggest hope of
the gamble
by Hashimoto is that the LDP wins it all and fulfills Morita's "revival"
label for the
election.  What is interesting in the integrity of the Morita prediction is
that the
now-conservative Morita stated that this win will be temporary or "one-time" 
(itiji-teki).  No one in Tokyo is talking about one-party dominance, and
the future 
LDP is not that of the past LDP controls.  With many retirees (Gotoda,
Fujio, SDPJ
Tanabe, and others), the smaller 500 seat Diet will feature fewer
rigidities and
more future defections as the new election system takes hold.


****************************************
Stephen J. Anderson
URL http://www.glocom.ac.jp/staff/anderson.e.html
Center for Global Communications (GLOCOM)
International University of Japan
****************************************