IP: Talk of Internet's Collapse Greatly Exaggerated

[Dave Farber <farber () central cis upenn edu>]

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Please see http://www.nytimes.com CyberTimes column for FULL story with


pictures etc djf








September 2, 1996




Technology: Talk of Internet's Collapse Greatly


Exaggerated




By PETER H. LEWIS




[T] he Internet death watch is in full dirge. According


    to the latest morbidity reports, national networks


like Netcom and America Online are crashing with


increasing severity, packets of your precious bits are


being scattered and lost throughout cyberspace, popular


sites on the World Wide Web are being choked by callers


and overall service is degrading as hordes of tourists


pile onto the Internet gripping copies of "The Internet


on $19.95 a Month."




...






"The Internet is growing, and it is growing up,"


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<smaller>Crocker [Dave Crocker, a principal at


Brandenburg Consulting of Sunnyvale, Calif djf] 


added. "It has been doing that on a smaller


scale for 25 years. During that time it has gone


through five magnitudes of scaling. In order to reach


every human on the planet, we only need two more."




...




Those of us who clamor for all-you-can-eat Internet


access for $19.95 a month are going to have to accept


occasional busy signals, dropped packets, slow response


times and long waits for technical support.




"You get what you pay for," said William L. Schrader,


chairman and chief executive of PSINet Inc. in Herndon,


Va., a company that is unapologetic about its


relatively high rates.




Schrader's company spent some $150 million several


years ago to embrace technologies called frame relay


and asynchronous transfer mode that in effect let it


guarantee fast and reliable service to business


customers. PSINet asserts that it is the largest


carrier of bits on the Internet, and that its data


pipes are only at 15 percent capacity.




...




"The whole business of communications has always been


to drive the system up to the point, not of overload,


but at least of heavy loads," said David Farber, a


professor of computer science at the University of


Pennsylvania and a board member of the Electronic


Frontier Foundation. "That's the most economic place to


operate it.


operate it.




"A year ago I was         


transferring files and      


telnetting," Farber said,   "Now I'm      


bringing video across the


network, and service is surprisingly good. It's the


equivalent of going from horse and carriage to jet


planes in less than a year. Even so, it took 15 seconds


to get mail from Finland this morning, and when I


telnet and link over to Japan I get no noticeably worse


response than a year ago."




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