IP: Internet Predictions and Advice

[Dave Farber <farber () central cis upenn edu>]

To: NII Awards Sponsors, Category Chairs and Judges
cc: Selected Friends of the Family
Re: NII Awards June 18th NYC Roundtable


Predictions, Insights and Advice from Leading Experts




The June 18th NII Awards (http://www.gii-awards.com) Roundtable "Beyond the
Barriers" - hosted by Price Waterhouse - brought leading Internet and
online experts together with a cross section of new media entrepreneurs,
educators, industry executives and community leaders.  The purpose of the
Roundtable was to identify key issues impacting the promise and potential
of the Internet and "info highway."


Panelists included:
* Chris Barr, Editor-in-Chief, c|net
* Dr. Bernadette McGuire-Rivera, Deputy Assistant Secretary for
Communications and Information, United States Department of Commerce
* Joshua Cooper Ramo, Senior Editor, TIME Magazine
* Caroline Vanderlip, President, AT&T Personal Online Services
* John Verity, Editor, Business Week


The panel was moderated by Jim Hake, Chairman of the NII Awards and
Principal of Access Media Inc.




SCENARIOS
The panel discussed three future scenarios:
* Netopia: nearly everything and everyone is connected, society prospers as
never before.
* Only the Strong Survive: society and the economy divide, only those who
have online access and are able to use it prosper.
* Much Ado About Nothing: all the excitement and promise of online
communications turns to disappointment, nothing changes, it was all hype.


Full text of the scenarios is available by sending email to
jhunt () accessmedia com




PREDICTIONS, BARRIERS, ADVICE
The panelists were also asked to make predictions and/or brief comments on:
1) Industry Profitability: when Internet/Online-based businesses will
generally become profitable.
2) Ubiquitous Access: when Internet/online access will be as ubiquitous as
telephone service is today.
3) Biggest Barrier: the biggest barrier to getting to "Netopia" (i.e.,
society realizing the full potential of online communications).
4) Advice: advice you would give to anyone seeking to prosper in the
emerging communications age.


The responses, included below, were very interesting and in some cases=
 humorous.


The comments on barriers and advice underscore the role of the NII Awards
in building awareness and educating by showcasing real-world examples of
excellence in use of the Internet and "information highway."




PANELIST RESPONSES
---------------------------


CHRIS BARR, c|net
1) Industry Profitability: June 15, 2004 (with a smile)
2) "Ubiquitous" Access: April 1, 2023 (with another smile)
3) Biggest Barrier: Money ... finding a way to pay for it.
4) Advice:
   a) Be opportunistic
   b) Stay nimble
   c) Solve a problem




BERNADETTE MCGUIRE-RIVERA, NTIA, Dept. of Commerce
1) Industry Profitability:  2000
2) "Ubiquitous" Access:  2000
3) Biggest Barrier:  Hierarchical thinking and hierarchical organization
4) Advice:  Stay lean, think about users, the technology will take care of
itself.




JOSH RAMO, TIME Magazine
1) Industry Profitability:  1998
2) "Ubiquitous" Access:  2000 (as defined by # of IP addresses equaling #
of telephones)
3) Biggest Barrier:  Old thinking, top down thinking; not understanding the
power is in the network.
4) Advice:  Learn how the network works, learn about TCP/IP, understanding
the details of the paradigm will help you understand everything else.




CAROLINE VANDERLIP, AT&T
1) Industry Profitability:  1998
2) "Ubiquitous" Access:  Never.
3) Biggest Barrier:  Hype ... the greatest concern is that the hype on Wall
Street and in the media will cause a collapse because (hype-based)
expectations are not met.
4) Advice:  Know your audience/user/customer, this isn't driven by
technology or hype, define a real benefit.




JOHN VERITY, Business Week
1) Industry Profitability:  1998
2) "Ubiquitous" Access:  a looong time unless there is a political decision
made to underwrite it.
3) Biggest Barrier:  Reality.
4) Advice:  Get ready to jump ship at any moment, things are changing fast,
barriers are shifting, anyone and any business could easily be overtaken
tomorrow, be prepared to keep moving.




TRANSCRIPT
A full transcript of the Roundtable is available by sending email to
jhunt () accessmedia com




=A9 1996 NII Awards and Access Media