Informatization White Paper (JIPDEC)

[David Farber <farber () central cis upenn edu>]

From:
 Dr. David K. Kahaner
 US Office of Naval Research Asia
 (From outside US):  23-17, 7-chome, Roppongi, Minato-ku, Tokyo 106 Japan
 (From within  US):  Unit 45002, APO AP 96337-0007
  Tel: +81 3 3401-8924, Fax: +81 3 3403-9670
  Email: kahaner () cs titech ac jp
Re: Informatization White Paper, 1993
12/14/94 (MM/DD/YY)
This file is named "inf-wp.94"


ABSTRACT. Description of the 1993 Edition of the Informatization White
Paper, from the Japan Information Processing Development Center
(JIPDEC).


A useful summary of Japanese activities in the areas of Informatization
and Telecommunications trends is published each year (in English) by the
Japan Information Processing Development Center (JIPDEC) (see my report
"jipdec.94", 22 July 1994 for a discussion of JIPDEC). Below, I list the
Table of Contents of the 68 page "Informatization White Paper, 1993".
While it is difficult for any summary document to keep up with rapidly
changing fields, I found that this report contains many useful details,
especially in its Telecommunications section, such as a list of Common
Carriers (Type I) and paging service companies in Japan.  Multimedia is
the buzz word here, as in other places.  It is at the cornerstone of
most applications in both computing and telecommunications, which are
obviously converging. In Japan key issues are related to
interministerial competition, which is very strong. Those aspects are
not emphasized in this report, which primarily deals with the facts and
figures of the computer industry.


Individual copies of this report can be ordered (US$40) directly. For
specific details or sections, contact me [kahaner () cs titech ac jp].  For
further information about JIPDEC or the Informatization White Paper,
contact JIPDEC at the following address.


        Research Division
        Japan Information Processing Development Center (JIPDEC)
        Kikai Shinko Kaikan Bldg
        3-5-8 Shibakouen, Minato-ku, Tokyo 105 JAPAN
         Tel: +81 3 3432-9381; Fax: +81 3 3432-9389






INFORMATIZATION WHITE PAPER   1993 Edition
     by
JIPDEC (Japan Information Processing Development Center)




CONTENTS (Page numbers refer to the printed report)


I.  General Remarks:
     Changes in Informatization Trends and Outlook  ............1


  1. Introduction   ............................................1


  2. International Trends and Informatization...................2


  3. Domestic Trends and Informatization .......................3


  4. Informatization of Industry ...............................5


  5. Informatization of Homes, Regions, and Society ............7


  6. Education, personnel Education and Informatization ........9


  7. Development of New Technology and Informatization ........10




II. Information and Telecommunication User Trends .............15


  1. Current Status and Prediction of Industrial
       Informatization Based on I^3 ...........................15


     [1] Hardware Installation Ratio and Comparative
          Installation Ratio   ................................15


     [2] Software Expenditure Ratio and Comparative
          Installation Ratio  .................................17


     [3] Telecommunication Capacity Installation Ratio and
          Comparative Installation Ratio  .....................18


     [4] Overall Outlook for Industrial Informatization Based
          on Comparative Installation Ratios   ................21




  2. Current Status of Computer Utilization in Industry  ......21


     2.1 Status of Computer Utilization  ......................23


     [1] History of Company's Computerization and
          Anticipated Size in Five Years   ....................23


     [2] Current Status and Future of Input Systems ...........23


     [3] Operating Expenses of EDP Sections ...................23


     [4] Computer Personnel and Education .....................24


     [5] Business Applications ................................25


     2.2 State of On-line Operations ..........................27


     [1] Computer networks  ...................................27


     [2] Utilization of Telecommunication Lines ...............27


     [3] Utilization of International Telecommunication
          Services   ..........................................29


     [4] Installation of CPUs and Terminals  ..................29


     2.3 Database Utilization and Supply  .....................29


     [1] Use of Commercial Databases ..........................29


     [2] Possibility of Supplying Databased Commercialized
          from In-house Databases  ............................30


     2.4 State of System Security Measures   ..................30


     [1] System Malfunctions and Failures   ...................30


     [2] System Security Measures .............................30




III.  Trends in the Information and Telecommunication Industry 35


  1. Computer Industry ........................................35


     1-1 Principal Trends during 1992  ........................35


     [1] Impact of Economic Recession  ........................35


     [2] price Competition in the PC Market ...................35


     [3] Possibilities of Multimedia Technology ...............36


     [4] Evaluation of Fifth Generation Computer Project ......36


     [5] Start of the Next Cutting-Edge Fundamental Research
          Project  ............................................36


     1-2 Market Size of the Computer Industry  ................36


     [1] Electronic Computers and General-purpose Computers ...36


     [2] Minicomputers  .......................................39


     [3] Small Business Computers .............................43


     [4] Personal Computers ...................................43


     [5] Peripherals and Terminal Equipment  ..................46


     [6] Production and Export/Import of Computers and
          Related Equipment  ..................................47




  2. Information Services Industry ............................50


     2.1 Introduction  ........................................50


     2.2 Information Services Market ..........................51


     [1] Overall Status .......................................51


     [2] Outline of Major Information Services ................52




  3. Telecommunications Industry  .............................53


     3.1 Current State of Domestic Telecommunications  ........53


     [1] Intensified Competition in the Long-distance Services
          Market  .............................................53


     [2] Setting up a Competition Environment for Mobile ......53
          Communications


     [3] Infrastructure Strategy  .............................53


     3.2 Overview of Japan's Telecommunications Carriers  .....53


     [1] NCC  .................................................53


     [2] NTT  .................................................53


     [3] Type II Telecommunications Carriers ..................59


     3.3 Current State of International Telecommunications  ...59


     [1] Major Movements in 1992 ..............................59


  4. International VAN  .......................................60




IV. Information Technology Engineers Examinations  ............63


  1. History of Examinations ..................................63


  2. Correlation between Employment Location and Education
       Location or Educational Careers  .......................63


     2.1 Correlation with Employment Locations and
          Education Locations  ................................66


     2.2 Correlation between Employment Locations and
          Higher Educational Careers  .........................67
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                       FIGURES


Figure  1 Transition of Comparative Hardware Installation Ratio Classified by
           Industries....................                                17


Figure  2 Transition of Comparative Software Expenditure Rafio Classified by
           Industries...................                                 19


Figure  3 Informalization by Industries Based on Comparative Ratio.....  22


Figure  4 Expected Expansion Rate of Enterprises' System in Five Years.. 23


Figure  5 Input Systems : Current State and Expectation in Five Years... 24


Figure  6 Problems Related to Computer Personnel........................ 26


Figure  7 State of Computerization Attained by Type of Operation........ 26


Figure  8 Computer Networks : Current State and Expectation in Five
           Years...................................................      27


Figure  9 Utilization of Telecommunication Lines:
           Current State and Expectation in Five Years................   28


Figure 10 Utilization of International Telecommunication Services:
           Current State and Expectation in Five Years................   28


Figure 11 On-line Terminals Installed: Current State and Expectation in
           Five Years.......................................             29


Figure 12 Database Utilizafion and Possibility of Supplying Internal Database
           to Outside Users:
           Current State and Expectation in Five Years..............     30


Figure 13 Level of System Security Measures.........................     32


Figure 14 Transition of General-purpose Electronic Computers and General-
           purpose Computer Delivery.......                              37


Figure 15 Shipment of Personal Computers: Actual and Forecast.........   45


Figure 16 Transition of Production, Import, and Export of Computers and
           Related Equipment (Calendar year)..........................   48


Figure 17 Transition of Growth Rate of Sales over Preceding Year in
           Information Service Industry.................                 50


Figure 18 Number of Information Service Enterprises that Went Bankrupt.. 50


Figure 19 Transition of Actual Number of Databases Available in Japan... 52


Figure 20 Transition of Digital Data Transmission Services (DDX)........ 58


Figure 21 Transition of Number of Leased Lines.......................... 59


Figure 22 Transition of Number of Applicants during Ten Years........... 64


Figure 23 Transition of Number of Successful Applicants during Ten Years.65


Figure 24 Percentage of Successful Applicants Classified by Education Places
           (Programmer Exam of 1992 Fall)...........................     66


Figure 25 Percentage of Successful Applicants Classified by Higher Educational
           Career
           (Programmer Exam of 1992 Fall)..............................  67


---------------------------------------------------------------------------


         TABLES




Table  1  Hardware Installation Ratio Classified by Industries.....        16


Table  2  Comparative Hardware Installation Ratio Classified by Industries
           (Yearly Comparison)..................                           16


Table  3  Software Expenditure Ratio Classified by Industries............  17


Table  4  Comparative Software Expenditure Ratio Classified by Industries
           (Yearly Comparison)...............                              19


Table  5  Telecommunication Capacity Ratio Classified by Industries...     20


Table  6  Comparative Telecommunication Capacity Ratio Classified by
           Industries (Yearly Comparison)......                            21


Table  7  Transition of Industrial Informatization Based on Comparative
           Ratios..............................................            22


Table  8  Operating Expenses of EDP Section (Transition during Five Years) 25


Table  9  Average Number of In-house Computer Personnel per Enterprise
           (Transition during Five Years)....                              25


Table 10  Malfunctions and Failures of Computer Systems..........          31


Table 11  Delivery of Electronic Computers by Size (1991)........          38


Table 12  Delivery of Electronic Computers by Categories (1991)..          38


Table 13  Delivery of Electronic Computers by Public and Private Sectors
           (1991)............................................              39


Table 14  Delivery of General-purpose Computers by Industries (1991)..     40


Table 15  Delivery of General-purpose Computers by Regions (1991).....     41


Table 16  Transition of Minicomputer Shipment in Number and Value Classified
           by Sizes..............................                          42


Table 17  Transition of Small Business Computer Shipment in Number and Value
           Classified by Sizes...........                                  44


Table 18  Transition of Peripheral Device and Terminal Shipments during Five
           Years.......................................                    46


Table 19  Transition of Production of Computers and Related Equipment during
           Five Years...........................                           49


Table 20  Transition of Number of Offices, Employees, and Annual Sales.    51


Table 21  Outline of New Common Carriers (Type I).............             54


Table 22  Examination Categories, Targets and Levels of Expertise..        63


Table 23  Growth Rate of Applicants and Percentage of Successful Applicants
           in 1992....................................                     66


Table 24  Number of Applicants Classified by Education Places
           (Programmer Exam of 1992 Fall).................                 66


Table 25  Number of Applicants Classified by Higher Educational Career
           (Programmer Exam of 1992 Fall)......................            67


---------------------------END OF REPORT--------------------------------