Re: Kahaner Report: STA's Fifth Technology Forecast summarized

[David Farber <farber () central cis upenn edu>]

From: 
 Dr. David K. Kahaner
 US Office of Naval Research Asia
 (From outside US):  23-17, 7-chome, Roppongi, Minato-ku, Tokyo 106 Japan
 (From within  US):  Unit 45002, APO AP 96337-0007
  Tel: +81 3 3401-8924, Fax: +81 3 3403-9670
  Email: kahaner () cs titech ac jp
Re: STA's Fifth Technology Forecast summarized.
8 June 1993
This file is named "sta.93"

ABSTRACT. Results of a large survey (done once every five years) on
technology forecasts for the next 10-20 years.

See also my earlier report, "sta.492", 25 May 1992.

These summaries are from the NIKKEI SANGYO SHIMBUN, a Japanese daily
newspaper that specializes in technology.

STA TECHNOLOGY FORECAST RELEASED

NIKKEI SANGYO SHIMBUN in Japanese 30 Nov 92 p 5

The Science and Technology Agency has assembled the results of technology 
forecasts using the Delphic (survey) method. The agency does this every 5 
years; this is the fifth time. In addition to forecasts of the time of 
realization of future technology, the survey asked about such things as 
classifications of barriers to realization, the importance of conducting 
research, the necessity of international R&D, and the level of domestic 
R&D relative to foreign R&D. The results are introduced in detail below, 
based on those sections.  

In the case of barriers, respondents were asked to select two of the 
eight categories, and totals were taken for the number of technical 
problems pointed out by the majority of respondents for each category. 
The greatest barrier was "technical difficulty;" it was pointed out for a 
majority of 83% of all tasks. There were many difficult tasks in such 
areas as materials and processes, elementary particles, information and 
electronics, and life sciences.  

The second barrier was "cost aspects" such as price competitiveness in 
the marketplace (32% of all tasks). It was particularly prominent (82%) 
in energy field tasks such as alternative energy development. Next in 
line was the "funding" needed for R&D (16%). The space field is a classic 
example; the analysis is that finances, rather than technology, is the 
bottleneck in the development of space.  

Very few other factors were pointed out, but looking at the individual 
technical tasks, it can be seen that "cultural factors" was pointed out 
in connection with organ transplants, and "training and maintaining 
skilled personnel" in connection with some of the life sciences.  

There was a strong recognition of the necessity of international 
cooperation in connection with global technical tasks like global 
environmental policy, the emergence of new scientific fields like 
explication of brain functions, the challenges of "big science" and so 
on. There were 251 tasks (22% of the total) that the majority of 
respondents evaluated as being in great need of international 
development. The topics mentioned would be difficult to achieve 
independently, both in terms of technology and of funding, and included 
creation of international communications networks, analysis of human 
genes, AIDS policy and the Space Station. This trend was seen in the 
previous survey as well.  

There were 39 items for which more than 80% of the respondents considered 
the necessity of international cooperation to be great and the majority 
evaluated the importance of research as great. It is noteworthy that as 
many as 12 of these were topics in the environmental area.  

A new item in the survey this time was a comparison of the levels of 
research in Japan and abroad. There were 41 tasks for which the majority 
of respondents said Japan had the advantage; these included 
microprocessing of semiconductors and technology for suppression 
emissions of oxidation compounds of nitrogen. Similarly, an overseas 
advantage was seen for 93 items, including prevention and treatment of 
Alzheimer's disease.  

To apply other criteria for evaluation of these technological tasks, the 
tasks for which Japan has the advantage are those where there is little 
need for international cooperation, and where realization is expected 
relatively early. For such tasks, cost is the major obstacle to 
realization, and financing is a relatively minor factor. Just the 
opposite trends are seen in the tasks where the advantage lies overseas.  
The commonly stated view surfaced that "Japan is still behind in basic 
and long-term research. "To compare the different fields of technology, 
the overseas advantage is clear in the three fields of space (pioneered 
by the United States and Russia), life sciences (where the United States 
is moving ahead) and insurance/medicine.  

For the 367 tasks carried over from the previous survey, the current 
evaluations were compared with the earlier predictions. The average 
predicted time of realization slipped from 2004 back to 2007. This may be 
because the items carried over were selected from those without too much 
deterioration in the technological development stage in the past 5 years.  

A delay of 5 years or more was seen for 43% of the tasks; larger than 
average delays were seen for space (seven years), environment and 
mining/marine resources (each 6 years), and life sciences, energy and 
transportation (each 5 years). Delays of 9 to 10years were seen for tasks 
like establishment of AIDS therapy, realization of which was predicted 
within the century during the prior survey, for the spread of a regional 
early warning system for earthquakes, and for the commercialization of 
nursing robots.  

The tasks which showed a great increase in importance from the prior 
survey were recovery of usable items from trash (from 46% up to 88%) 
suppression of automobile emissions of oxidation products of nitrogen 
(from 44% up to 80%), and the popularization of electric cars (from 25% 
up to 57%); this reflects the growing importance of environmental issues.  

Overview of Survey

In the Delphic method, respondents are informed of survey statistics and 
asked to respond make a second response. The survey covered 1,149 issues 
in 16 areas. The first round was sent to 3,334 persons in September 1991, 
and the second round was sent out in November 1991.  Ultimately, 
responses were received from 2,385 persons. Of the final respondents, 37% 
were from companies, 36% from universities, 15% from public research 
institutions and 12% from special public corporations or elsewhere. The 
times forecast for realization of tasks were selected from among 5-year 
intervals; times forecast by respondents were listed from earliest to 
latest, and a value was calculated to correspond to the center of the 
list.  

----------------------------------------------------------------------

EDITORIAL: NIKKEI SANGYO SHIMBUN in Japanese 1 Dec 92 p 2

It is difficult to predict the future, but the STA's future technology 
forecast is useful for building companies' strategy for the 21st Century.  

"Stereo television will show three-dimensional images in the home, robots 
will do the housework, and electricity will be supplied by solar cells 
and fuel cells. ID systems will check fingerprints at the entryway..." 

The Technology Forecast, which looks at new technologies to be realized 
in the 30 years between now and 2020, portrays that image of the home of 
the 21st Century. This survey, recently put out by the STA, has been 
carried out every 5 years since 1971. Earlier surveys were heavily 
weighted toward biotechnology and incurable diseases like cancer, but 
this time was characterized by the emergence of global environmental 
issues, which have been the focus of worldwide attention. That attention 
is backed by high interest among experts.  

The survey took up 1,149 topics in 16 fields that included, materials and 
processes, information and electronics and so on. These were put together 
using the Delphic method to gather and re-gather the views of more than 
2,300 experts. This is the first time such a huge number of topics have 
been approached. In the Delphic method, which was developed by the RAND 
Corporation in the United States, was originally used to predict times of 
realization, but Japan has added such things as importance, technical 
constraints, Japanese or foreign superiority and necessity of 
international cooperation; this should be called the Japanese edition of 
the Delphic method.  

And how should these predictions be interpreted? First, it can be seen 
that the topics gathered are worthy of prediction. The particularly 
important topics can be judged as evidence of social and industrial 
attention. The times of realization are more questionable. Although 100 
to 200 experts took paint in each field, it is hard to get exact matches. 
The predictions, therefore, can be considered as data to show the trend 
toward realization. R&D is the most important issue for companies; it is 
the key to the 21st Century. Because the survey also touches on the 
obstacles to realization for each topic, such as technical, financial or 
personnel problems, it is excellent data for companies to use in creating 
strategies for survival. Hints are also found in the expert comments 
attached to each topic.  

It is deeply interesting that Germany has begun a survey with practically 
the same content and coverage as the STA survey. It is to be completed 
next year, so it will be possible to see whether Japan or Germany is more 
optimistic and how the degrees of importance differ.  

It goes without saying that this survey will be accurately reflected in 
future science and technology policy. But although the technology survey 
focuses on hi-tech, advanced topics, technology transfers to developing 
countries should be suited to the levels of those countries, so it would 
be good to gather information on those fields as well. That will lead to 
steady, international contributions.  

DETAILS -----------------------------------------------------------------

Outline of STA Technology Forecast, Part I-III

This three part article details the survey results and was published in 
NIKKEI SANGYO SHIMBUN in Japanese 1-3 Dec 92.  

The STA has conducted its fifth Technology Forecast, and published the 
results. This survey was directed at experts in industry, academia and 
the government, and used two questionnaires on 1,149 tasks in 16 fields 
expected to play major roles in the future to ask when these technologies 
would be realized. What follows is the trend of Japan's technology for 
the next 30 years in each field, as seen by experts.  

MATERIALS/PROCESSES: There Were 108 tasks including materials, such as 
optical and electromagnetic properties, and design and shaping processes. 
The five judged most important were "room-temperature superconductors" 
(to be realized in 2017), "stacked solar cells with at least 50% 
efficiency: (2010), "nitrogen dioxide fixation technology needed for 
protection of the global environment" (2008), "missile drugs noted in 
cancer patients (2007) and "gigabit memory beam processing technology" 
(2002). Noteworthy research areas included control of structure at the 
atomic and molecular level, development of function with domain control 
technology, hybridization technology and chemical process frontiers.  

INFORMATION/ELECTRONICS: There were 106 tasks including advanced 
functions, intelligent functions and ease of use. The two judged most 
important were "free processing of 10nm patterns" and"VLSIs beyond 1 
gigabit per chip," to be realized in 2003 and2002 respectively.  "Silicon 
LSI memory with 1nm access times" was to be realized by 2000, the rapid 
development of large-scale, error-free software by 2009, and physical and 
chemical explication of the human brain by 2020.  

LIFE SCIENCES: There were 96 tasks including information transfer and 
technology using molecular aggregates. Those of highest interest were 
related to cancer; "effective means to prevent metastasis" were to be 
realized by 2007, all cancer-suppressing genes were to be identified by 
2009, and drugs to prevent the onset of cancer were to be developed by 
2013. In addition, treatment for Alzheimer's disease and senility was to 
be possible by 2011, and attention was given to research trends in 
protein engineering, genome studies, generation and division, and higher 
brain functions.  

SPACE: There were 46 tasks including position surveys using satellites, 
and transport in space. A "worldwide air traffic control system using 
satellites" was to be realized by 2001, and "complete recycling 
technology for water and oxygen in space stations" developed by 2007.  
There, was also "space transport at one-tenth the present cost, with 
prospects for space travel" in 2010. Technology for satellite monitoring 
of the earth is progressing, and"real-time monitoring of the distribution 
and movement of atmospheric pollution" is to be realized about 2002.  

ELEMENTARY PARTICLES: Views were heard on 40 tasks including accelerators 
and the ripple effect on measurement and detection technology. "Computers 
with speeds of 10 TFLOPs" and large memories with write speeds of at 
least 1 gigabit/sec" are to be realized by 2004.  There are to be great 
leaps in electronics technology, including the use of synchrotron orbital 
radiation (SOR), or technology for working pattern sizes below 10nm using 
lithography with an SOR radiation source.  "Quantitative analysis 
equipment on the order of 10^{-10} is to appear as well. Attention was 
given to the trend of extreme limit technology, with semiconductor 
optical detectors capable of "seeing individual photons in the visible 
spectrum with screen sizes of several million pixels or more" by 2005.  

OCEANS/EARTH: The survey covered 82 tasks of monitoring and prediction 
technology from the atmosphere to the ear-Earth itself. Japanese 
earthquake prediction technology is to produce techniques that can 
"predict the occurrence of magnitude 8 and greater earthquakes several 
days in advance" by about 2010, and "mechanisms for formation, variation 
and depletion of the ozone layer" are to be explicated by 2002. By 2005 
it is to become possible to "predict the occurrence and scope of 
pyroclastic flows and ash from volcanic eruptions. "By 2006 it should be 
possible to predict volcanic eruptions 3 days in advance.  

MINING/MARINE RESOURCES: The survey covered 39 tasks such as prospecting 
for minerals and technology for developing water resources and improving 
water quality. "Methods for economical discrimination and separation of 
valuable materials recovered from urban refuse" are to be developed by 
2001. "Precise precipitation prediction technology" is to be established 
and precipitation used efficiently by 2004, and "water purification 
technology for rivers and lakes" is to be developed by 2005. In addition, 
technology for treatment of sewage and waste water will be promulgated 
for the removal of common BOD (biological oxygen demand) pollutants, and 
other pollutants as well. By 2008 there is to be improvement in 
"landslide and mudslide prediction technology" and a considerable 
reduction in loss of life. Attention was also paid to the development of 
technology for unmanned, labor-saving resource development.  

ENERGY: The survey covered 51 tasks such as primary and secondary energy 
production, centering on utilization. Flon gases (chlorofluorocarbons) 
are to disappear and be replaced by other refrigerants in air 
conditioning systems by 2001. "Large-area, stacked membrane solar cells 
with at least 20% energy efficiency" are to realized by 2004.  
"Technology for treatment of highly radioactive waste solids" is to be 
realized by 2009, and a "fast breeder reactor (FRB) system with a nuclear 
fuel cycle" by 2017. Realization of nuclear fusion development is not 
expected within the next 30 years.  

ENVIRONMENT: Opinions were asked on 50 tasks relating to the global 
environment. The answer as to which task was most important was "a global 
response to the effects of global warming on agricultural policy;" was 
predicted that direct effects will begin to appear by 2004, and that 
warming will cause major problems. With that crisis as the background, it 
was thought that "reduction of carbon dioxide missions to 20% of current 
levels" would be realized in 2015. Flon and halon gas are the root cause 
of the ozone problem; replacements that can meet the demands of the 
warming problem without destroying the ozone layer are to be realized in 
1999. As for measures against oxidation products of nitrogen from 
automobiles, technology that can meet exhaust regulations of 0.1to 
0.2g/km will be available and will spread to most vehicles in 2003. 
Moreover, and "accurate mechanism for generation and depletion of carbon 
dioxide in the atmosphere" is to be explicated in 2004; the development 
of technology for recycling, is expected the same year.  

AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND FISHERIES: The survey covered 74 technical 
tasks related to cultivation, husbandry and education. In the field of 
recombinant DNA technology, there has been progress in "genetic 
manipulation for improvement of varieties with superior yields and 
resistance to disease and cold," which has reached the stage of 
realization. By 2006, "technology for maintenance and used of biological 
resources at the DNA and cell level" will spread, and by 2003, cellular 
materials, that are naturally biodegradable with no harmful products" are 
to be commonplace and widely used. High-precision remote sensing 
technology is to appear by 2004, for the realization of systems for 
constant monitoring of agriculture and forestry resources on a global 
scale, and of changes in the agriculture and forestry environment. 
"Mechanisms of all plant cell functions" are to be explicated by 2014.  

MANUFACTURING: The survey covered 72 tasks technology for more 
information and intelligence-oriented systems for manufacturing and 
society, and the use of hostile environments. As an example of technology 
that takes environmental issues into consideration, "the spread of global 
safety measures using such technology as absorption of carbon dioxide, 
artificial photosynthesis, technology to render waste products harmless, 
and prevention of desertification" is to be realized by 2011. By 2006, on 
the other hand, there is to be "development of safety equipment for 
industrial complexes and atomic energy facilities", and systems to 
prevent the destruction of facilities by earthquakes. By 2007, technology 
for evaluation of potential dangers and prediction of disasters is to be 
realized, and safety technology established for aircraft, tankers and so 
on.  

In connection with recycling of industrial products like dry cells, by 
2004 that is to be legally specified as the responsibility of the 
manufacturer and almost all materials used will be recyclable.  According 
to responses in the field of superconductivity, "the use of room 
temperature superconductive materials for industrial products" is to be 
realized by 2008; this date differs markedly from that given in the 
materials field [2017], which consists primarily of academics.  

CITIES/CONSTRUCTION/CIVIL ENGINEERING: The survey covered 65 tasks 
related to technology for construction, enhanced productivity of basic 
facilities, and maintenance of safety. With the aging of atomic power 
plants, technology for the safe and rational dismantling and abandonment 
of reactors is to be established by 2004. Recycling technology to cut 
urban waste by half is to appear the same year, and in 2006 the 
"purification of marine waters by construction of various types of 
purification facilities and water exchange facilities" is to be 
accomplished in closed waters near major cities. By that time, recycling 
of energy, wastes and other materials will be done in neighborhood units. 
And by 2007 there is to be a nationwide disaster prevention system for 
the earthquakes that cause great damage in large cities.  

COMMUNICATIONS: The survey covered 65 communications-related tasks to 
make communications more efficient, less expensive, more personal and 
more convenient. "Long-range, high-capacity optical communications with 
coherent optical telecommunications technology such as optical heterodyne 
circuits, using optical fibers" is to be realized by 1999.  "Tracking and 
continuity exchanges to allow communication at any time and any place, 
using personal ID codes" is to be realized in 2001. 2003 is to bring 
"broad-band ISDN and the spread of ATM switches," as well as 
international optical circuits connecting Japan and Hawaii, without 
relays, with extremely low-loss optical fiber. By 2004 it is to be 
possible to construct an international ISDN network covering the whole 
world, to which once can connect automatically from the domestic ISDN.  
The major tasks will be making communications more personal and networks 
more intelligent.  

TRANSPORTATION: The goal of making traffic services more efficient and 
gentler on the environment was approached by 62 tasks. Using new trunk 
line [bullet train] technology, there are to be rail cars capable of 
continuous operation at 300km/h in 1998. By 2003, new materials are to be 
used in cars and rails, noise and vibration near rail lines are to be 
greatly reduced, "a system for four-dimensional control of aircraft using 
times and positions will be developed," and navigational precision and 
safety will receive full consideration. At the same time, a "worldwide 
air traffic control system using satellites" is to be realized. Large 
cargo trucks in that year are to emit oxidation products of nitrogen at 
the same level as current gasoline-powered vehicles.  

INSURANCE/MEDICINE: The 109 tasks selected focused on technology for 
treatment and prevention. Cancer is to be overcome in about 2010. By 2004 
the ways in which all types of cancer are formed are to be explicated, as 
is the mechanism for geriatric arteriosclerosis.  Senility will be 
unavoidable in an era with an aging population. The occurrence of 
Alzheimers disease will be explicated by 2007, and effective means of 
prevention and treatment are to be established by 2011. Attention was 
paid to research trends for diabetes, nerve and muscle ailments, 
artificial organs and aging.  

COMMUNITY LIFE: The survey covered 82 tasks tied to the sense of 
sufficiency necessary to life. By 2002, "recycling systems for textiles, 
food packaging materials and other household goods" are to be widespread, 
and "systems to deal with fires and earthquake-related dangers in very 
tall buildings" are to be realized. Technology for the removal of 
oxidation products of nitrogen, a source of air pollution, is to be 
realized by 2003. "Solar-energy cooling systems in public housing and 
buildings to reduce carbon dioxide" are to be realized by 2004.  "Systems 
for prevention of rural disasters such as landslides and mudslides" are 
to be widespread by 2008. There are also expectations for the development 
of technology to bring about a sense of comfort and sufficiency, develop 
new cultural activities and create a network for educational information.  

----------------------------------END OF REPORT------------------------