Re: Im lovin google spam filter

["Hubbard, Dan" <dhubbard () websense com>]

Agreed LARGE corpuses across many  are needed to make judgments.  In the case of SPAM 97% is pretty easy, 98% is 
getting hard, 99% is minimum for enterprise. 

Then you start measuring into the decimals and yes its needed due to the mass volume customers get. Its not trivial to 
go last mile .1% at a time due to peoples judgment of what is spam and what is not.  We get complaints all the time 
from people who have signed up for newsletters and argue they are getting SPAM'd.

Our SLA FP rates are 1/300,000 and the industry is anywhere from 1/150,000 to 1/400,000 depending on their definition 
of an FP.



-----Original Message-----
From: funsec-bounces () linuxbox org [mailto:funsec-bounces () linuxbox org] On Behalf Of Valdis.Kletnieks () vt edu
Sent: Thursday, April 07, 2011 10:11 AM
To: michael.blanchard () emc com
Cc: funsec () linuxbox org; rsk () gsp org
Subject: Re: [funsec] Im lovin google spam filter

On Thu, 07 Apr 2011 12:49:34 EDT, michael.blanchard () emc com said:

> If we take 100 people on this list, have them all look in their 
> backyards and report if there is any paper or plastic blowing around, 
> I'll bet we can come up with a fairly high percentage of us that don't 
> have any paper or plastic blowing around.  I'll further say that I'll 
> bet the number would be within a standard deviation of 4% error.  So, 
> if 96% of us don't have any paper or plastic blowing around in our yards, could we safely say that no-one litters?

No, you can safely say that the population average of litter-free backyards is has a 70% chance between 92% and 100%, 
and about 95% chance of being between 88% and 100%. (Yes, it's likely to be closer to a chi-squared curve than a 
gaussian bell curve due to the constraint of one tail).

The problem is that careful analysis is needed - I'll make a prediction that yards with chain link fences have a lot 
higher level of wind-born litter than unfenced yards.  This of course impacts your analysis of litter sources.

And incidentally, Rick *has* done the "take 100 people" type analysis, which is why he commented that (basically) the 
plural of anecdote isn't data.
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