Re: Phase changes in international relations

[Konrads Klints via Dailydave <dailydave () lists aitelfoundation org>]

William Gibson’s transition from the bridge cycle and Johnny Mnemonic  with its meta verse-cyberspace to Blue Ant cycle 
with it’s careful amplification of trends through nudges etc captures this beautifully

On Tue, 23 Aug 2022, at 09:27, Pukhraj Singh via Dailydave wrote:
> I am one of those people who find this problem so pressing that I have
> side-lined my SIEM engineering job to pursue an international
> relations degree. It has been an epiphany to say the least.
>
> -         The lack of empiricism in cyber policy has transformed it
> into a credibility problem, centred around personalities. This problem
> is not going away anytime soon.
>
> -          If it is going to remain a subjective discipline, then
> there are techniques like Process Tracing – well known in public
> policy which also struggles with empiricism and emergent properties –
> that could be applied than invoking the spirit of John Nash (RIP).
>
> -          The offence-defence discourse is soul-suckingly banal. It
> boggles me that we choose to completely ignore disciplines like
> political economy[1] as they are not as hot as cyber offence.
>
> -          I am not sure what Dave meant by COGINT but we need to
> start looking at cyber policy papers and policies that have aged
> well.[2] It may bring the doctrinal focus back on things like
> information operations or lead to a Socratic first-principles
> assessment.[3]
>
> -          Look, I understand that exploit writers and hackers feel
> like Oppenheimer when he paraphrased the Sanskrit quote: “Now I am
> become death, the destroyer of worlds”. But the technologist,
> liberalist and realist sides need to know that their perspectives do
> not apply in absolute terms in cyber policy.[4] Weird machines and
> national power are reflexive.
>
> -          One thing is for sure: cyber policy has slipped out of the
> hands of norm entrepreneurs. We really need to stop talking about
> norms, normative frameworks and Tallinn Manual for a while now.
>
> Best,
> Pukhraj
> ________________________________
>
> [1] Shawn M. Powers and Michael Jablonski, The Real Cyber War: The
> Political Economy of Internet Freedom (University of Illinois Press,
> 2015).
>
> [2] Erik Gartzske, ‘The Myth of Cyberwar: Bringing War in Cyberspace
> Back Down to Earth’, International Security 38, no. 2 (2013): 41–73;
> Michael Monte, Network Attacks and Exploitation: A Framework (Wiley,
> 2015).
>
> [3] David Ormrod and Benjamin Turnbull, ‘The Cyber Conceptual
> Framework for Developing Military Doctrine’, Defence Studies 16, no. 3
> (2016): 277–80.
>
> [4] Jon R. Lindsay and Derek S. Reveron, ‘Conclusion’, in China and
> Cybersecurity: Espionage, Strategy, and Politics in the Digital Domain
> (Oxford Scholarship Online, 2015), 334–52.
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