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FW: Was Forensic/Cyber Crime Investigator - Now Statistical Analysis of Digital Forensic Sciences
From: "Craig Wright" <cwright () bdosyd com au>
Date: Mon, 13 Feb 2006 13:04:41 +1100
Hello; I have promised that I would send a detailed list of how to calculate statistics for court times and how this hooks into DFS. This is not comprehensive and short of being sponsored to write a paper on this I shall not be completing a paper on this. SPSS v 11.0 has been used for the calculations. Alpha is set at 5%. First The composition of courts to complete a world wide estimate (which is actually going to be greater than the real figure seeing as 3rd world nations will not have the same resource levels) Court time are taken from the following countries; USA and Canada 1 LLMC Digital: Combined Collections http://0-ets.umdl.umich.edu.portia.nesl.edu/cgi/t/text/text-idx?g=llmc 2 Worldlii, World Legal Information Institute http://www.worldlii.org/ Africa 1 Worldlii, World Legal Information Institute http://www.worldlii.org/ http://bar.austlii.edu.au/cgi-dev/browse.pl?region=Africa Asia 1 Worldlii, World Legal Information Institute http://www.worldlii.org/ http://bar.austlii.edu.au/cgi-dev/browse.pl?region=Asia Europe ( and UK included ) 1 Worldlii, World Legal Information Institute http://bar.austlii.edu.au/cgi-dev/browse.pl?region=Europe Pacific Islands 1 Worldlii, World Legal Information Institute http://bar.austlii.edu.au/cgi-dev/browse.pl?region=Pacific+Islands Australia 1 Australasian Legal Information Institute http://www.austlii.edu.au 2 NSWSC library 3 High Court Registry The values obtained from the sites above for the years 2000-2005 where weighted based on the population estimates for each respective region (census information obtained from the US Census Bureau, "Global Population Profile: 2002") Estimates where regresses and tested using ANOVA. This demonstrated that there is no significant variation from the court time model by year and region and the derived expected results to the actual results at an alpha = 5% level. There is room for error as US, UK and Australian court sitting times have been used as a universal model to extrapolate a generalised "court time pa". Next (secondly) Incident levels are based on a combination (average) from Symantec and SANS in the 2005 Tests Thirdly, Crime statistics for incidents have been obtained from the following sources: 1 DOJ, Computer Crime Analysis 2 Australian Institute of Criminology (computer file) The data from the Australian Institute of Criminology (computer file) and DOJ has been used to derive a model of western cases. These are higher than those in Asia for example, but this only further correlates to the original point, that there is not enough court time on earth to take all incidents to trial. These are the primary sources used in the construct of the 7 seconds per case figure. In reality this figure would be lower as it assumes that Africa and Asia would be able to bring technical cases to trial at the same rate as the US. Give this the "real" figure would be several orders of magnitudes smaller than this. Other data used in compilation of this data was obtained from the following sources; 1 AHTCC (Australian High tech Crime Centre, data dated 2003) 2 Austrack (AGEC, 2001) 3 AusCert (Australian Computer Crime and Security Survey 2002) 4 CCIPS (DOJ, 2002) 5 ASIC, EFT Complaints 1999-2000 6 US Federal Trade Commission, "Sentinel Complaints by Callander Year" 7 USDOJ 1999 "Report on Cyber staking" Data from the AIC and PWC "Serious fraud in Australia and NZ, Research and Public policy series No.48" was also used extensively. No permission is obtained for the use of the figures. More to follow after lunch... Intermission Regards Craig Dr Craig S Wright DTh MNSA MMIT CISA CISM CISSP ISSMP ISSAP G7799 GCFA AFAIM Manager - Computer Assurance Services BDO Chartered Accountants & Advisers Level 19, 2 Market Street, Sydney, NSW 2001 Telephone: +61 2 9286 5555 Fax: +61 2 9993 9705 Direct: +61 2 9286 5497 <Mailto:CWright () bdosyd com au> Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation in respect of matters arising within those States and Territories of Australia where such legislation exists. DISCLAIMER The information contained in this email and any attachments is confidential. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not use or disclose the information. If you have received this email in error, please inform us promptly by reply email or by telephoning +61 2 9286 5555. Please delete the email and destroy any printed copy. Any views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender. 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- FW: Was Forensic/Cyber Crime Investigator - Now Statistical Analysis of Digital Forensic Sciences Craig Wright (Feb 13)
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- RE: Was Forensic/Cyber Crime Investigator - Now Statistical Analysis of Digital Forensic Sciences Craig Wright (Feb 13)