nanog mailing list archives

RE: IoT - The end of the internet


From: Vasilenko Eduard via NANOG <nanog () nanog org>
Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2022 09:48:49 +0000

Exponential growth under the limited resource
Always finish by collapse.
Some resources are always limited in nature.
Smith’s joke from the “Matrix” (about modeling humans as a virus) is only partially a joke.
Whenever somebody talks about “exponent” – be alarmed – it would end in a very bad way.

The biggest one in the history of mankind was around 1200 b.c. Tin for Bronze has been finished, Bronze was the 
basement of the civilization.
It is the famous “Bronze Age collapse” that cut the population 100x, and civilization lost writing capability for a few 
hundreds of years.
Recovered by mastering Iron instead of Bronze. Iron is many thousands of times more available on Earth (in every swamp).

Tens of smaller collapses are traceable in human history.
Well, Roma's empire collapse was probably not so small, but smaller than the “Bronze Age collapse”.
The oldest is probably from humans in Australia, they have eaten all big animals and destroyed all forests, then 
depopulate and lose the basic tools (like arrows).
A very similar story that did happen for Easter Island, just on the island all become dead.

We are at the inflection point of the current exponent.
Natural resource energy production already declining for a couple of years (small decline yet) – carbon-hydrogen-based 
natural resources are limited.
If a replacement for the current energy source would not be found
Then the anticipated civilization collapse would become the biggest in history: 1000x depopulations.
Nile river is capable to feed 1M of people using only muscles, not 120M. And so on everywhere in the world.
The transition period in collapse would bypass possible optimal under the new conditions (cut more people).

“Dark ages” are possible and happened in history many times. Don’t be too optimistic.
People could start eating each other instead of “Lunch on the Moon”. It is possible.
Fortunately, not mandatory.

PS: Canned energy from China (solar panels, wind turbines) is produced from coal. It is not a solution when coal would 
finish.
Moreover, energy return from such types of “green energy” is worse than direct electricity generation from coal.
It is popular just because dust is left in China. Others have “green”.
A closed nuclear fuel cycle is the only available solution (gives the next exponent that could last 5k years if Thorium 
is involved).
The ordinary nuclear reaction could prolong humans' agony only for 60 years (Uranium 235 is limited).
Nuclear fusion looks like fiction yet: the best story for money wastage, already 3 generations of scientists have made 
their careers.

Ed/
From: NANOG [mailto:nanog-bounces+vasilenko.eduard=huawei.com () nanog org] On Behalf Of Etienne-Victor Depasquale via 
NANOG
Sent: Wednesday, August 10, 2022 9:19 PM
To: Chris Wright <chris.wright () commnetbroadband com>
Cc: NANOG <nanog () nanog org>
Subject: Re: IoT - The end of the internet

 because our lizard brains have a hard time comprehending exponential growth
Don't forget how we pontificate on how well we understand infinity.

Cheers,

Etienne

On Wed, Aug 10, 2022 at 6:09 PM Chris Wright <chris.wright () commnetbroadband com<mailto:chris.wright () 
commnetbroadband com>> wrote:
That’s just humans in general, and it certainly isn’t limited to our outlook on the future of the internet. Big 
advancements will always take us by surprise because our lizard brains have a hard time comprehending exponential 
growth. Someone please stop me here before I get on my Battery-EV soapbox. :D

Chris

From: NANOG <nanog-bounces+chris.wright=commnetbroadband.com () nanog org<mailto:commnetbroadband.com () nanog org>> On 
Behalf Of Tom Beecher
Sent: Wednesday, August 10, 2022 9:25 AM
To: Christopher Wolff <chris () vergeinternet com<mailto:chris () vergeinternet com>>
Cc: NANOG <nanog () nanog org<mailto:nanog () nanog org>>
Subject: Re: IoT - The end of the internet

It always amazes me how an industry that has , since its inception, been constantly solving new problems to make things 
work, always finds a way to assume the next problem will be unsolvable.

On Tue, Aug 9, 2022 at 10:23 PM Christopher Wolff <chris () vergeinternet com<mailto:chris () vergeinternet com>> wrote:
Hi folks,

Has anyone proposed that the adoption of billions of IoT devices will ultimately ‘break’ the Internet?

It’s not a rhetorical question I promise, just looking for a journal or other scholarly article that implies that the 
Internet is doomed.


--
Ing. Etienne-Victor Depasquale
Assistant Lecturer
Department of Communications & Computer Engineering
Faculty of Information & Communication Technology
University of Malta
Web. https://www.um.edu.mt/profile/etiennedepasquale

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