Re: Texas ERCOT power shortages (again) April 13

["Patrick W. Gilmore" <patrick () ianai net>]

The issue was not only perfectly foreseeable, ERCOT has a ten year old document explaining PRECISELY how to avoid such 
an occurrence happening.

Did you miss the second paragraph below?

-- 
TTFN,
patrick

> On Apr 14, 2021, at 11:35 AM, Brian Johnson <brian.johnson () netgeek us> wrote:
>
> Not what I was saying. The demand for virtue-signaling green energy is not an effective strategy to actually having 
> power available.
>
> I appreciate the nuances, but the need to imply that a profit motive was the issue is not proven. This issue was NOT 
> foreseeable except with the perfect reverse 20/20 vision. It’s like saying that I shouldn’t have built the house 
> where the tornado hit.
>
> > On Apr 14, 2021, at 10:12 AM, Patrick W. Gilmore <patrick () ianai net <mailto:patrick () ianai net>> wrote:
> >
> > Brian:
> >
> > The idea that because ERCOT is a non-profit somehow means they would never do anything to save money, or management 
> > is not granted bonuses or salary increases based on savings, or have no financial incentive is ridiculous. E.g. 
> > Salaries for the top ERCOT executives increased 50% from 2012 to 2019. “Just pointing out facts.” 
> >
> > Also, green vs. traditional has little to do with why ERCOT had problems. It is undisputed that ERCOT failed in 
> > 2011, was handed a report by the feds showing why they failed and how to fix it, yet ERCOT did not require suppliers 
> > to enact those fixes. Those actions had a direct, operational effect on the Internet. And as such, seem perfectly 
> > on-topic for NANOG.
> >
> > Why that happened may still be on topic. For instance, you state correctly that ERCOT is a non-profit (although you 
> > and I disagree on precisely how that affects things). But the suppliers are not. Are we 1000000% certain the CEO’s 
> > salary jumping far far far far far faster than inflation had nothing to do with protecting the suppliers’ profits? I 
> > am not. However, that question is only tenuously operational.
> >
> > Bringing it back to the topic on hand: How do we keep the grid up? Or plan for it not being up? Simply saying “green 
> > power is unreliable” is not an answer when many RFPs at least ask what percentage of your power is green, or flat 
> > out require at least some of your production be green. Making a blanket statement that “XXX is a non-profit” does 
> > not absolve them from poor business practices, which at least saves the non-profit money and frequently results in 
> > profits outside that entity. Etc.
> >
> > -- 
> > TTFN,
> > patrick
> >
> >
> > > On Apr 14, 2021, at 10:00, Brian Johnson <brian.johnson () netgeek us <mailto:brian.johnson () netgeek us>> wrote:
> > >
> > > There is no profit motive for a non-profit company. It’s completely relevant to your response.
> > >
> > > For profit companies have similar issues with power generation and maintenance as the way power is generated 
> > > requires maintenance. No power system is generating at 100% of capability at any single point. Your assumptions of 
> > > neglect, poor maintenance and failing to learn are subterfuge. Traditional methods are more reliable (so far) than 
> > > the newer “green” methods.
> > >
> > > Just pointing out facts.
> > >
> > > > On Apr 14, 2021, at 8:26 AM, Tom Beecher <beecher () beecher cc <mailto:beecher () beecher cc>> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Brian-
> > > >
> > > > I am aware. That's also not relevant at all to the point. 
> > > >
> > > > On Wed, Apr 14, 2021 at 9:22 AM Brian Johnson <brian.johnson () netgeek us <mailto:brian.johnson () netgeek us>> 
> > > > wrote:
> > > > Tom,
> > > >
> > > > You do realize that ERCOT is a non-profit organization….
> > > >
> > > > > On Apr 14, 2021, at 8:04 AM, Tom Beecher <beecher () beecher cc <mailto:beecher () beecher cc>> wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > > Funny how this obsession with a green grid has made the grid
> > > > > > unreliable, resulting in sales of gas-burning generators and
> > > > > > perishable fuel.  Dare I say it's not been worth it?
> > > > >
> > > > > Yes, desire for renewable power sources is totally the reason that power generators neglect proper preventative 
> > > > > maintenance and adoption of lessons learned during past problem periods. It absolutely has nothing to do with 
> > > > > profit being the most important thing ever. Right? 
> > > > >
> > > > > On Wed, Apr 14, 2021 at 8:48 AM Mark Tinka <mark@tinka.africa <mailto:mark@tinka.africa>> wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > On 4/14/21 13:35, Billy Croan wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > > Sounds like we all need to start keeping a few days reserve of energy 
> > > > > > on hand at home now because the utilities can't be trusted to keep 
> > > > > > their system online in 2021.
> > > > >
> > > > > It just makes sense to plan along those lines, really. Despite popular 
> > > > > belief, power companies are preferring energy conservation from their 
> > > > > customers more than they do sales, because they just can't keep throwing 
> > > > > up new coal-fired or nuclear power stations a la the days of old (anyone 
> > > > > remember the 1973 and 1979 oil crises?)
> > > > >
> > > > > Most people would assume that power companies want to sell more 
> > > > > electricity so they can make more money, but they dread the days when 
> > > > > the network is brought to its knees, even if the revenue will climb. So 
> > > > > between asking customers to save more on energy + being able to rely 
> > > > > less on fossil fuels for generation, one needs to consider their 
> > > > > personal energy security over the long term, fully or partially 
> > > > > independent of the traditional grid.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > Funny how this obsession with a green grid has made the grid 
> > > > > > unreliable, resulting in sales of gas-burning generators and 
> > > > > > perishable fuel.  Dare I say it's not been worth it?
> > > > >
> > > > > I wouldn't say that the obsession is without merit. It's just that 
> > > > > regular folk are only seeking the solution from one perspective - that 
> > > > > of the power generators. If folk (and that includes the gubbermints) met 
> > > > > the power companies half way, renewables would make a lot more sense, 
> > > > > more quickly. But as I said before, when we flick the switch, it must 
> > > > > turn on. End of. And then we revert to demanding power companies to 
> > > > > embrace the additional revenue, or fulfill their mandate to deliver a 
> > > > > basic, life-sustaining utility, no matter what.
> > > > >
> > > > > Unfortunately, there really hasn't been sufficient education to regular 
> > > > > folk about what it takes to generate electricity reliably, no matter the 
> > > > > season. And yet, there is far more education out there about the 
> > > > > benefits of conserving it, and preserving the earth. So the view is not 
> > > > > balanced, and power companies as well as oil producers will knee-jerk to 
> > > > > either justify or distance themselves, rather than encourage a fair, 
> > > > > practical engagement. In the end, he that feels the most pressure, 
> > > > > caves... and this can go either way depending on which side of the 
> > > > > economic development curve you are sitting.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > Nuclear and hydro were the only reasonable obvious choices and 
> > > > > > ecological paralysis hamstrings those as well.
> > > > >
> > > > > Ultimately, no target toward zero emissions is complete without some 
> > > > > kind of nuclear and/or hydro. Especially as a solution for peak demand, 
> > > > > (pumped) hydro will continue to be the most efficient option, if folk 
> > > > > are interested in keeping the lights on at 7:45PM on a wintery Tuesday 
> > > > > night.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > Now is the time to speak the message.  Write your elected 
> > > > > > representatives. Talk to your families and friends about energy.  
> > > > > > Change minds.
> > > > >
> > > > > There is room for co-existence, I think. But the honest discussions need 
> > > > > to be had, and not the glossy wish list that should be fixed by someone 
> > > > > else, because we are just citizens minding our own business.
> > > > >
> > > > > Mark.