Re: Sunday traffic curiosity

[Mark Tinka <mark.tinka () seacom mu>]

On 23/Mar/20 22:54, Owen DeLong wrote:

> That hasn’t been my observation at any of the local sports bars. I
> actually have little to no interest in live sport (except maybe the
> occasional curling match, yeah, I’m not just old, I’m odd).

I think we each need to define what we mean by "the kids" :-).


> Live sport seems quite popular among kids and millennials, at least in
> the US.

Yes, but as a proportion of those who drive how the Internet is
re-defining traditional economies, how does that track?

From an African perspective, my anecdotal observation is that it is
mostly really young kids (you're talking from as little as 4 - 5 years
old) and women (both young and old) that are influencing this "I don't
care about how it all works, just get me my value" paradigm that is the
new economy. And in both cases, the majority of them don't have a
penchant for sport, live or on-demand. Much of that is relegated mostly
to men, from early-teen boys all the way to us geezers, a demographic
that, in my observation, don't use the Internet as dynamically as "the
kids" and women.


> Personally, I wish I could stop paying the “fee for access to local
> sports” that my linear provider charges every month.

Africa's primary sports broadcaster, amazingly, includes access to all
sports, games and matches (regardless of their significance) as part of
the flat monthly subscription fee. Whether your poison is boxing, motor
racing, football (American and soccer), basketball, the Olympics,
baseball, rally cross, iron man, e.t.c., local and international. They
do not have a pay-per-view concept yet. It is something they are
considering as a way to keep themselves relevant in a VoD world, but for
now (and since ever), all major and minor sports events come for no
additional cost.


> Nonetheless, the younger people around me supposedly driving this new
> economy seem very focused on their love of live sports.

Would be interesting to know what age these "younger people" are, and if
they are male or female. I've found the gender does actually matter,
when it comes to watching sports.


> Well, for the moment, live sports aren’t happening, at least locally,
> so how to televise them isn’t exactly an issue.

We all agree on that - but almost every sports event considered (until
the rolling lockdowns) how they can continue their events with some
combination of the Internet in play.

The thing with sport, though, is that participants have to play. No
players, no event. So even if there was a good solution to moving sports
to the new economy, scenarios like the Coronavirus keeps players off the
playing field. That doesn't mean that outside of these extreme cases,
sports organizers aren't considering how to use the new economy,
especially when those driving it will have far more influence on it,
than traditional sports lovers.


> I don’t think eSports will replace traditional sports,

And they were never meant to. Just like Formula-E and Formula One, it's
just another avenue open to those who are interested. It's not meant to
replace what the petrol heads like.


> I think that for now, the sports organizations facing a sudden and
> dramatic loss of revenue and progressively more distressed fans are
> grasping at straws to find ways to keep their fans engaged, hoping for
> a near-term return to normal revenue activities. Remains to be seen
> how well that will work.

And that is the new economy that the Coronavirus has amplified and
accelerated. Listen to your customer, engage them, and offer value (not
product). Every industry is affected. No one is immune. Old, traditional
models, as sensible as they seem, are going to be challenged, and a ton
of them will simply disappear.

For every call we make to Google Maps to get us from point A to B, there
is a shop selling an atlas that is going out of business. You can't
blame the Google, or the user, for that.


> These have already been tried in a variety of ways, usually with
> limited success.

My advice is use the little time and money you have now to experiment
with new models. 99% execution, 1% strategy; not the other way around.
Don't wait until all the money and time runs out to experiment, and then
you don't have any left of either.


> This idea that things can cost zero is the most frustrating part. I’m
> so tired of not being able to buy apps instead of rent them. I’m fed
> up to here with apps that come with ridiculous loads of advertising.
> This shift from an ownership economy to a rental economy is terrible
> and I wish that we could somehow educate the kids on how much more it
> actually costs them.
>
> Possibly the worst artifact is the “If you’re not paying, you’re the
> product” and the number of millennials that view the surveillance
> economy with a kind of “Yeah, so what? Privacy is so 1990.” attitude.

The folk on this list understand how it all works, which is why we
either don't have Alexa in our homes and seal our laptop microphones and
cameras with gaffer tape. For the rest of the world, they live in the
Matrix, and to them, they spend more time chasing value. Being concerned
about what they are giving up for that value is counter to their
thought-process.

The clever companies that know how to keep delivering that value will
keep their customers hooked to "renting" it from them.


> Yep… It’s also growing because as they fragment further and further
> (e.g. Disney launching their own and pulling content off Netflix),
> each one sucks just a little bit more with each transition and the
> price to the consumer to get everything they want keeps going up.
> Eventually, aggregators that can offer some form of a la carte
> licensing are going to spring into existence to meet that demand, but
> for now, the content providers aren’t ready because they haven’t lost
> enough customers to this frustration yet.

Agreed.


> Not so sure about that. More and more people I talk to are finding
> less and less interesting on Netflix. Producing their own content has
> been Netflix’s response, but eventually, that model just turns them
> into yet another single-studio outlet.

You spoke too soon:

   
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/netflix-market-cap-surpasses-disney-123801623.html

But yes, I see what you mean; and for as long as VoD operators keep this
as their goal, linear TV will never die.


> If I had to wager on the last man standing in that arena, I think I’d
> say Disney to win, NBC/Universal to Place and tough to say who picks
> up the Show position.

I disagree, if your position is a global one.

Sure, Disney are very likely to challenge Netflix in the U.S., but they
don't seem - to me anyway - like they have the right DNA to take their
game global, in the way Netflix has, and does.

Netflix have 3 very key things going for it that give it far greater
global presence than any other U.S. VoD service provider:

    - Their own-produced content, meaning they can release without
restriction.
    - Their own, well-deployed network, meaning performance is always
excellent.
    - Country-specific content to identify with the locals.

DIsney and many of the new VoD providers with a Hollywood background are
relying on their "vast" libraries that made them wealthy decades ago to
take over Netflix's market. The problem is my kids aren't interested in
the "Lion King", for example. That's for you and me, the old timers;
they have zero interest in trying to figure out who "Mickey Mouse" is.
It's just the way they are...


> You enjoy. I have no actual interest in linear TV for sports and
> amusingly, the linear programming that I do watch is recorded by my
> TiVO and time shifted so I can skip the stupid commercials.

For me, it's about seeing every business squirm as they are forced to
re-think old strategies. The Coronavirus caught them off guard, but it
was always coming.


> The only time I watch ads is when they’re more interesting than the
> superbowl, which is pretty much every superbowl.

Well then, I'm sure you enjoyed Volvo's clever "interception marketing"
number from 2015's superbowl:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzWlm9PFamQ

A perfect example of the new economy, where your competition is anyone
with an Internet connection and an idea :-).

Mark.