Re: modeling residential subscriber bandwidth demand

[Paul Nash <paul () nashnetworks ca>]

Mixed residential (ages 25 - 75, 1 - 6 people per unit), group who worked together to keep costs down.  Works well for 
them.  Friday nights we get to about 85% utilization (Netflix), other than that, usually sits between 25 - 45%

        paul

> On Apr 2, 2019, at 5:44 PM, Jared Mauch <jared () puck nether net> wrote:
>
> I would say this is perhaps atypical but may depend on the customer type(s).
>
> If they’re residential and use OTT data then sure.  If it’s SMB you’re likely in better shape.
>
> - Jared
>
>
> > On Apr 2, 2019, at 5:21 PM, Paul Nash <paul () nashnetworks ca> wrote:
> >
> > FWIW, I have a 250 subscribers sitting on a 100M fiber into Torix.  I have had no complains about speed in 4 1/2 
> > years.  I have been planning to bump them to 1G for the last 4 years, but there is currently no economic 
> > justification.
> >
> >      paul
> >
> >
> > > On Apr 2, 2019, at 3:21 PM, Louie Lee via NANOG <nanog () nanog org> wrote:
> > >
> > > Certainly.
> > >
> > > Projecting demand is one thing. Figuring out what to buy for your backbone, edge (uplink & peer), and colo (for CDN 
> > > caches too!), for which scale+growth is quite another.
> > >
> > > And yeah, Jim, overall, things have stayed the same. There are just the nuances added with caches, gaming, OTT 
> > > streaming, some IoT (like always-on home security cams) plus better tools now for network management and network 
> > > analysis.
> > >
> > > Louie
> > > Google Fiber.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > On Tue, Apr 2, 2019 at 12:00 PM Jared Mauch <jared () puck nether net> wrote:
> > >
> > >
> > > > On Apr 2, 2019, at 2:35 PM, jim deleskie <deleskie () gmail com> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > +1 on this. its been more than 10 years since I've been responsible for a broadband network but have friends that 
> > > > still play in that world and do some very good work on making sure their models are very well managed, with more 
> > > > math than I ever bothered with, That being said, If had used the methods I'd had used back in the 90's they would 
> > > > have fully predicted per sub growth including all the FB/YoutubeNetflix traffic we have today. The "rapid" growth 
> > > > we say in the 90's and the 2000' and even this decade are all magically the same curve, we'd just further up the 
> > > > incline, the question is will it continue another 10+ years, where the growth rate is nearing straight up :)
> > >
> > >
> > > I think sometimes folks have the challenge with how to deal with aggregate scale and growth vs what happens in a 
> > > pure linear model with subscribers.
> > >
> > > The first 75 users look a lot different than the next 900.  You get different population scale and average usage.
> > >
> > > I could roughly estimate some high numbers for population of earth internet usage at peak for maximum, but in most 
> > > cases if you have a 1G connection you can support 500-800 subscribers these days.  Ideally you can get a 10G link 
> > > for a reasonable price.  Your scale looks different as well as you can work with “the content guys” once you get 
> > > far enough.
> > >
> > > Thursdays are still the peak because date night is still generally Friday.
> > >
> > > - Jared