Re: One Year On: IPv4 Exhaust

[Paul Thornton <paul () prt org>]

On 25/09/2016 01:54, Jay R. Ashworth wrote:
> One year ago today, at 12:36pm EDT, Facebook On This Day reminds me, John
> Curran announced that the last IPv4 address block in ARIN's Free Pool had
> been assigned.
>
> How's that been workin' out for everyone?

If you'll all indulge a bit of a RIPE-centric reply on this; I've was 
allocated a /22 from around half-way through 185.169.0.0/16 last week 
(185 being RIPE's final /8).

Assuming that RIPE are allocating sequentially - and I believe they are 
- This means that they have consumed around 66.5% of their final /8. 
They started allocating from this in September 2012, which suggests a 
reasonably low consumption rate but the RIPE final /8 will be exhausted 
in around two years time.

I can't find an equivalent ARIN page of "how much we've allocated from 
our last /8" - the statistics show that just over 2x /16s worth have 
been assigned/allocated between January 2016 and July 2016, so a lower 
rate by some margin than RIPE - but there are of course policy 
differences at play there.

Now the operational question of "How has this affected us" is probably 
best answered with "We've had to pay real money for IPv4 addresses since 
then."  What may be much more interesting is what happens when the 
fairly ready supply of IPv4 addresses in the secondary transfer market 
starts to dry up.  Just throwing additional money at the problem will 
probably not be an effective or viable solution then.

I'm sure that Geoff Huston has a much more accurate and colourful set of 
predictions than my back-of-envelope calculations for those interested!

Paul.