RE: Another Big day for IPv6 - 10% native penetration

[Jacques Latour <jacques.latour () cira ca>]

Great news and even more impressive is that Canada is the fastest adopter with ~8% IPv6 penetration, growing from 
almost 0.5% to 8% in 3 months!!!.  See http://stats.labs.apnic.net/ipv6/CA

Telus is making a big difference in Canada as the IPv6 adoption leader @ ~45% IPv6 adoption.    
http://stats.labs.apnic.net/ipv6/AS852?c=CA&g=&w=1&x=1

Hint, hint, subliminal message here for all Canadian ISPs, IPv6 works  ;-)

So let's shutdown IPv4 on April 4, 2024 

Bonne Année!



> -----Original Message-----
> From: NANOG [mailto:nanog-bounces () nanog org] On Behalf Of Jared Mauch
> Sent: January-04-16 11:28 AM
> To: Ca By
> Cc: nanog () nanog org
> Subject: Re: Another Big day for IPv6 - 10% native penetration
>
>
> > On Jan 4, 2016, at 11:09 AM, Ca By <cb.list6 () gmail com> wrote:
> >
> > > On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 3:26 AM, Neil Harris <neil () tonal clara co uk>
> wrote:
> > > > On 02/01/16 15:35, Tomas Podermanski wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Hi,
> > > >
> > > >     according to Google's statistics
> > > > (https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html) on 31st
> > > > December
> > > > 2015 the IPv6 penetration reached 10% for the very first time. Just
> > > > a little reminder. On 20th Nov 2012 the number was 1%. In December
> > > > we also celebrated the 20th anniversary of IPv6 standardization - RFC
> 1883.
> > > > I'm wondering when we reach another significant milestone - 50% :-)
> > > >
> > > > Tomas
> > > Given the recent doubling growth, and assuming this trend is
> > > following a logistic function, then, rounding the numbers a bit for
> neatness, I get:
> > > Jan 2016: 10%
> > > Jan 2017: 20%
> > > Jan 2018: 33%
> > > Jan 2019: 50%
> > > Jan 2020: 67%
> > > Jan 2021: 80%
> > > Jan 2022: 90%
> > >
> > > with IPv4 traffic then halving year by year from then on, and IPv4
> > > switch-off (ie. traffic < 1%) around 2027.
> > >
> > > Neil
> > Just a reminder, that 10% is a global number.
> >
> > The number in the USA is 25% today in general, is 37% for mobile devices.
> >
> > Furthermore, forecasting is a dark art that frequently simply extends
> > the past onto the future.  It does not account for purposeful
> > engineering design like the "world IPv6 launch" or iOS updates.
> >
> > For example, once Apple cleanses the app store of IPv4 apps in 2016 as
> > they have committed and pushes one of their ubiquitous iOS updates,
> > you may see substantial jumps over night in IPv6 eyeballs, possibly
> > meaningful moving that 37% number to over 50% in a few shorts weeks.
> >
> > This will squarely make it clear that IPv4 is minority legacy protocol
> > for all of mobile, and thusly the immediate future of the internet.
>
> I for one welcome the iOS update that brings v6 APN native access to my
> phone, or at least v4v6 APN setting.
>
> I keep hearing rumors it is "coming soon".
>
> This could have a similar step function in the traffic and graphs.