Re: Another Big day for IPv6 - 10% native penetration

[Neil Harris <neil () tonal clara co uk>]

On 02/01/16 15:35, Tomas Podermanski wrote:
> Hi,
>
>      according to Google's statistics
> (https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html) on 31st December
> 2015 the IPv6 penetration reached 10% for the very first time. Just a
> little reminder. On 20th Nov 2012 the number was 1%. In December we also
> celebrated the 20th anniversary of IPv6 standardization - RFC 1883.
>
> I'm wondering when we reach another significant milestone - 50% :-)
>
> Tomas

Given the recent doubling growth, and assuming this trend is following a 
logistic function, then, rounding the numbers a bit for neatness, I get:

Jan 2016: 10%
Jan 2017: 20%
Jan 2018: 33%
Jan 2019: 50%
Jan 2020: 67%
Jan 2021: 80%
Jan 2022: 90%

with IPv4 traffic then halving year by year from then on, and IPv4 
switch-off (ie. traffic < 1%) around 2027.

Neil