Re: FIB Sizing

[William Herrin <bill () herrin us>]

On Tue, Jul 21, 2015 at 4:57 PM, Graham Johnston
<johnstong () westmancom com> wrote:
> Does anybody have a working projection, or crystal ball, that can provide a recommendation on FIB size requirements 
> for the next 24 months?  Are we expecting the IPv4 table to continue to grow at somewhere around 50k routes a year? I 
> came up with this from eyeballing the graph at 
> http://www.cidr-report.org/cgi-bin/plota?file=%2fvar%2fdata%2fbgp%2fas2.0%2fbgp-active.txt&descr=Active%20BGP%20entries%20%28FIB%29&ylabel=Active%20BGP%20entries%20%28FIB%29&with=step.

Hi Graham,

The IPv4 BGP table has been growing by 10% to 15% per year since CIDR.
It appears to be a compounding curve, not linear.

IPv4 exhaustion is a new factor which may or may not impact the next
24 months' projection. There are arguments favoring a slower rate (no
more free pool). There are arguments favoring a faster rate
(fragmentation from address sales). No one has a crystal ball good
enough to know for sure -- the situation is literally unprecedented.

Regards,
Bill Herrin

-- 
William Herrin ................ herrin () dirtside com  bill () herrin us
Owner, Dirtside Systems ......... Web: <http://www.dirtside.com/>