Re: Will a single /27 get fully routed these days?

[Owen DeLong <owen () delong com>]

On Jan 25, 2014, at 23:56 , Sander Steffann <sander () steffann nl> wrote:

> Hi Owen,
>
> Op 26 jan. 2014, om 05:36 heeft Owen DeLong <owen () delong com> het volgende geschreven:
>
> > On Jan 25, 2014, at 13:59 , Sander Steffann <sander () steffann nl> wrote:
> >
> > > Hi,
> > >
> > > > […] But, when that happens ARIN will only have the 'Dedicated IPv4 block to facilitate IPv6 Deployment' [1] left, 
> > > > and it will use 'a minimum size allocation of /28 and a maximum size allocation of /24' for that block. The block 
> > > > is meant for things like dual stacked DNS servers, NAT64 and other IPv6 deployments where a bit of IPv4 is still 
> > > > necessary.
> > >
> > > I wonder how reachable those systems will be... Will people adjust their filters, or will most usage of this block 
> > > (and thereby all new entrants in the ISP market in the ARIN region) just be doomed?
> >
> > That's actually may not be the best question. That block will come from within a specific prefix and I suspect that 
> > ISPs and the like will adjust their filters FOR THAT PREFIX.
>
> Same question… Will people adjust their filters, (even if only for that prefix)? All over the world? I think 'will 
> adjust their filters for XYZ' is highly optimistic, but let's hope it will work, otherwise the ISPs in the ARIN 
> region will have a problem. (Or maybe not: existing ISPs (for who a /2[4-8] is not a significant amount) might not 
> mind if a new competitors only gets a /2[5-8] that they cannot route globally. But I really hope it doesn't come to 
> that.)

Realistically, anyone depending on IPv4 is going to has a growing problem which will only continue to grow.

> But more important: which /10 is set aside for this? It is not listed on https://www.arin.net/knowledge/ip_blocks.html

I'm not sure it has been determined yet, let alone announced.

> > Consider the possibility of a policy change which allows the transfer of smaller blocks (current ARIN policy limits 
> > this to /24 minimum, but ARIN policy is not immutable, we have a policy development process so that anyone who wants 
> > to can start the process of changing it.)
>
> I’m well aware of that, but I’ll stick to RIPE policies for now :-)

I admit I'm not familiar with the details of the RIPE policy in this regard. Do they allow longer prefixes to be 
transferred and/or acquired?

I will point out that the NA in NANOG mostly refers to the ARIN region.

Owen